Authorities in Texas are under increasing scrutiny regarding their efforts to evacuate individuals before a flash flood surged through the Guadalupe River, resulting in over 100 fatalities, including 27 children and staff at a Christian all-girls camp.
According to the state’s governor, over 160 individuals remain unaccounted for in Texas, days after flash floods claimed more than 100 lives over the July Fourth weekend. In the aftermath, state, federal, and Kerr County officials have been evasive when confronted with questions about their readiness and alerts.
The Associated Press has pieced together an estimated timeline detailing the 48 hours surrounding the catastrophic flash flood, beginning with the activation of the state’s emergency response on July 2 — the same day Texas approved the camp’s disaster emergency procedures.
By daybreak on July Fourth, it was clear that some children from Camp Mystic were swept away by floodwaters even as others were able to escape to safety in their pajamas.
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Wednesday, July 2:
The Texas Division of Emergency Management activated state emergency response resources anticipating the threat of flooding in parts of West and Central Texas.
On the same day, Texas inspectors signed off on Camp Mystic’s emergency planning, records obtained by the AP show.
Thursday, July 3:
10:00 a.m.: Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said Friday that county judges and city mayors were invited to be on a daily call Thursday to discuss weather forecasts. Patrick also said a regional coordinator personally reached out to officials in the area.
“The message was sent,” Patrick said. “It is up to the local counties and mayors under the law to evacuate if they feel the need.”
1:18 p.m.: The National Weather Service’s Austin/San Antonio office issued a flood watch estimating rainfall amounts of one to three inches, with isolated amounts of five to seven inches for parts of south central Texas, including Kerr County. “Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,” the alert read.
Friday, July 4:
1:14 a.m.: Citing radar, the National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning for central Kerr County until 4:15 a.m., warning that it was life threatening.
Around 3:00 a.m.: Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said he was running on the river trail around 3 or 3:30 a.m. Friday and “everything was fine.”
“Four o’clock when I left, there was no signs of it rising at that point,” Rice said during a news conference later. “This happened very quickly over a very short amount of time.”
Rice said the isolated location and the heavy rain in a short period of time made a dangerous event that was not predictable, even with radar and National Weather Service warnings.
“This is not like a tornado where you can have a siren. This is not like a hurricane where you’re planning weeks in advance,” Rice said. “It hit. It hit hard.”
Between 3 and 5 a.m.: Floodwaters begin to inundate Camp Mystic. Young campers, counselors and staff are roused from sleep and begin a desperate rush to higher ground, according to social media accounts. The accounts detail how some young girls had to climb through cabin windows. One staffer said she was on the roof with water rising toward her at 4:00 a.m.
3:30 a.m.: Erin Burgess woke up to thunder at around 3:30 a.m. Friday in her home in Bumble Bee Hills, a housing development about halfway between Hunt and Ingram. Within a half hour or so, she told the AP that the water was rushing into her house. Burgess and her 19-year-old son clung onto a tree outside for an hour before the water receded.
3:35 a.m.: The National Weather Service extended its flash flood warning for central Kerr County until 7 a.m. based on radar and automated gauges.
3:35 a.m.: A U.S. Geological Survey gauge along the Guadalupe River about five miles north of Camp Mystic and about a mile east of Hunt shows the river had reached nearly 16 feet. The river at that location is subject to minor flooding at 10 feet.
Between 4 and 5 a.m.: Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said he was first notified about the situation from one of his sergeants.
4:03 a.m.: The National Weather Service named a flash flood emergency for south-central Kerr County, saying in all caps that it was a “particularly dangerous situation. Seek higher ground now!” Citing radar and automated rain gauges, the bulletin said low water crossings and the Guadalupe River at Hunt were flooding.
4:35 a.m.: A U,S, Geological Survey gauge along the Guadalupe River about five miles north of Camp Mystic and about a mile east of Hunt stops sending data. The last recorded river level from the instrumentation was 29.5 feet.
5:30 a.m.: Police knocked on Matthew Stone’s door in a Kerrville riverfront neighborhood, urging residents to evacuate. Stone said he had received no emergency warning on his phone. “We got no emergency alert. There was nothing,” Stone said. Then: “a pitch black wall of death.”
5:34 a.m.: The National Weather Service bulletin reported a flash flood emergency from Hunt through Kerrville and Center Point, saying “automated rain gauges indicate a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River.”
5:38 a.m.: In a comment on a Facebook post from the Kerr County Sheriff’s Office, one woman begged for someone to help her mother-in-law who was trapped in a trailer between Hunt and Ingram.
5:52 a.m.: Minutes later, another woman commented on the same Facebook post that Bumble Bee Hills was flooded and needed help.
6:06 a.m.: The National Weather Service extended the flash flood warning until 10:00 a.m. The bulletin also said local law enforcement reported “major flooding” and water rescues along the Guadalupe River.
6:19 a.m.: Another Facebook commenter on the Kerr County Sheriff’s page said a “friend and her family are on their rooftop in Hunt, waiting for rescue.”
6:45 a.m.: A U.S. Geological Survey gauge in Kerrville shows the Guadalupe River peaks at 34.29 feet, a figure that is preliminary and subject to change. It is the third-highest river level at that location, according to the data. The record of 39 feet was set on July 2, 1932,
6:59 a.m.: Erin Burgess was surveying damage in her flooded home after the river water receded. The line of muck reached halfway up her kitchen cabinets.
7:24 a.m.: The National Weather Service advises that the flash flood emergency extends to Sisterdale.
11:29 a.m.: Camp Mystic parents receive an email noting the grounds have “sustained catastrophic level floods” and that they are without power, water and internet. Parents with a daughter not accounted for were directly contacted, the camp said.
11:30 a.m.: Local officials held the first press conference to describe the situation and response. Asked what kind of warning system went out to make sure county residents got out safely, Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s chief elected official said: “We do not have a warning system.”
When a reporter followed up to ask why camps weren’t evacuated when the camps were in harm’s way, Kelly said they didn’t know “this flood” was coming.
“We had no reason to believe that this was going to be any, anything like what’s happened here,” Kelly said. “None whatsoever.”
3:30 p.m.: Two news conferences on Friday afternoon were the first to offer an initial death toll. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said six to 10 bodies had been found so far. Around the same time, Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha reported that 13 people had died in the flooding. Patrick also announced that the whereabouts of about 23 girls attending Camp Mystic were not known.
7:11 p.m.: A state agency responsible for search and rescue operations, the Texas Game Wardens, post on Facebook that they made entry into Camp Mystic and “are evacuating the campers to safety.” Roughly two dozen campers were still missing.
9 p.m.: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signed a disaster declaration at a news conference. Leitha reported about 24 fatalities.
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