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Kheyali is accused of shooting at Mohammed Keshtiar from a car as he was walking with another man in South Yarra in August 2023.
Police allege Kheyali then got out of the vehicle and fired further shots to ensure Keshtiar was dead.
In total, 17 ammunition cartridge cases were recovered from the scene.
Kheyali was first arrested over the killing in September 2024 but was released pending further police inquiries.
He was re-arrested and charged with murder on April 4 after a person, known under the pseudonym Witness O, gave a statement to police.
Kheyali’s barrister Dermot Dann KC argued his client should be bailed because the police case was not strong, noting the lack of forensic evidence and incriminating phone messages.
But Justice Incerti disagreed, finding there was some evidence linking Kheyali to the murder.
“I do not consider the prosecution case to be as weak as suggested,” she said.
Justice Incerti pointed to the statement of Witness O, saying it was “highly probative” although she did not outline the person’s evidence.
The judge also assessed the $800,000 surety put up by Kheyali’s mother, grandmother and uncle.
She accepted the 23-year-old had their support but said it was “fanciful” to expect his family to monitor him while on bail given he was an adult.
Justice Incerti also accepted Kheyali had diagnosed mental health issues, following the stillbirth of his first child in Afghanistan and the separation from his wife who still lived there.
But she determined the prison system had appropriate supports in place to ensure Kheyali had the treatment he needed in custody.
Justice Incerti said her ultimate concern was the safety of the broader community, and the allegation of a targeted shooting in a public place was concerning.
“This is a very serious example of (murder),” she said.
The judge found Kheyali did not have any exceptional circumstances that warranted bail being granted so she refused his application.
The 23-year-old blew kisses to his grandmother and mother and then thanked the judge directly as he was led out of the courtroom.
He is due to return to Melbourne Magistrates Court in August.