If the prospect of relegation is not enough to make Nottingham Forest change their scattergun approach to transfers, then perhaps nothing will.

On Monday Forest were docked four points for breaches of the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability (PSR) rules, reducing their tally to 21 points and dropping them into the bottom three. 

An appeal is being strongly considered, meaning the outcome of the relegation battle could still be unknown after all 38 games have been played. 

Owner Evangelos Marinakis will be furious at the punishment but the Greek shipping magnate would do well to look closer to home. First of all on the pitch, where Forest have dropped 21 points from losing positions this season. A little more durability in defence and this penalty would not have had such potentially dire consequences. 

Nottingham Forest were docked four points for breaches of the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability (PSR) rules on Monday afternoon, dropping them into the relegation zone

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are now behind Luton and saw their tally reduced to just 21 points

Owner Evangelos Marinakis will be furious at the punishment but Forest have made mistakes 

The latest episode was in Saturday’s vital game at Luton, where Forest led from the 34th minute only to be pegged back in the 89th. Three points instead of one would have put six points between Forest and Luton; now, only three separate them.

But Marinakis’ real blunder has been to allow a recruitment policy that has left Forest in this mess in the first place. Few in football are surprised at this verdict. By bringing in 43 players for close to £300million in the last three transfer windows, Forest were sailing close to the wind.

At the City Ground, too, they have been anticipating this for some time and last summer, as more and more players arrived, employees started to wonder whether enough attention was being paid to the rules.

Forest were represented by hugely respected KC Nick De Marco and a key plank of their defence was the departure of homegrown star Brennan Johnson, who joined Tottenham for £47.5m last August – comfortably a club-record sale.

Forest could have sold Johnson to Brentford in June for about £30million, which would have put them in a healthier financial state for the 2020-23 accounting period, but nearly £20m out of pocket overall. For the club’s sustainability, they argued that accepting £50m for Johnson in August was better than taking £30m earlier in the summer.

Then there is the elephant in the room: the 115 charges brought against Manchester City last February. Whereas Forest’s and Everton’s cases have been fast tracked, the champions’ will not be heard until this autumn at the earliest. It is easy to see why these two clubs feel harshly treated.

But as far as the governing body are concerned, all cases are separate. Though it is difficult to fault their ambition since returning to the top flight, too often Forest have moved at random. Perhaps this judgment will make them more methodical although with Marinakis’ son Miltiadis having a huge role, that is far from certain. ‘He does care passionately about Forest but he is impulsive,’ said one recruitment expert. ‘There is no real process to any of it,’ added an agent.

The sense is that Marinakis jnr – known as Miltos – sees Forest as a chance to make a name for himself in the world of football. He may do so – but for all the wrong reasons.

43 players have been signed by Forest in the last three windows for close to £300million

The signings of Jesse Lingard (left) and Jonjo Shelvey (right) are examples of their mistakes 

A key plank of Forest’s defence was the departure of homegrown star Brennan Johnson 

Since promotion, Forest have sacked three members of their recruitment team, changed the chairman and often operated without a full-time chief executive. Some believe that lack of stability has left them an easy target for agents seeking homes for their players. 

And as Mail Sport first revealed, Jon Fearn left the club in February despite being appointed head of physiotherapy only seven months earlier.

Former boss Steve Cooper had scant control over player trading during a little more than two years in charge. The first he knew that Remo Freuler, Cheikhou Kouyate and Willy Boly – to name three – had been signed was when he was informed of the deals by the club.

Strong connections with Brazilian agents like Giuliano Bertolucci helped bring Danilo and Murillo to Forest and Murillo will leave this summer for a big fee. Yet while those deals have worked to an extent, there are plenty of others that have not.

Of the five players signed on deadline day last summer, Andrew Omobamidele has yet to convince and Nuno Tavares has struggled for fitness. For a club record £30m, midfielder Ibrahim Sangare has been hugely disappointing and though former England winger Callum Hudson-Odoi and Divock Origi are improving, they have been inconsistent. No well-organised club goes on a trolley dash in the final hours of the transfer window – just as they do not find themselves in trouble with the authorities in this way.

Ross Wilson was appointed chief football officer last April and put together an impressive recruitment and analysis team, headed by Tom Stockwell, who held a senior scouting role at Southampton.

The deduction is a huge blow for the club and they face a fight to survive in the Premier League

Forest’s lack of stability at boardroom level and in their recruitment department is a problem and super-agent Jorge Mendes is becoming increasingly influential at the City Ground

One of his clients Gio Reyna joined on loan in January, but is yet to make any sort of impact

Yet while Wilson was busy with that, Forest were relying again on George Syrianos – even though Syrianos had been sacked as head of recruitment in October 2022. Syrianos founded data company Fenida and now has an advisory role with the Forest board, appearing in the directors’ box for home games.

Sacking a bloke in October only to bring him back in another guise the following August does not say a great deal about Forest’s overall strategy – if indeed there is one. Throw in those links to agents and it is reasonable to wonder precisely what role Wilson has in recruitment, even though he was ostensibly hired to oversee it.

Nuno Espirito Santo succeeded Cooper and his agent is Jorge Mendes. Mendes’ Gestifute company had a remarkable level of influence on recruitment when Nuno was at Wolves from 2017-21. Mendes also has a positive working relationship with the Marinakis family and Gestifute client Giovanni Reyna arrived on loan from Borussia Dortmund in January to sit on the bench. Why, exactly?

Reyna will return to Dortmund in the summer, probably without starting a single game. It will be left to others to try to keep Forest up but if they fail, the fault will lie with those at the top far more than those on the pitch.