As many as one in three people diagnosed with type 2 diabetes could develop heart failure, chronic kidney disease or die within five years, according to a major study.
Over a decade, the combined risk rises to more than 55 per cent, the research found.
Researchers at the University of Glasgow said the results underline the need to identify type 2 diabetes as early as possible, while making lifestyle changes and accessing treatment to help prevent potentially life-threatening complications.
Nearly 4.2 million people in the UK have received a type 2 diabetes diagnosis. A further 1.3 million are thought to be living with the condition without knowing it.
Type 2 diabetes is a major cause of blindness, kidney failure, heart attacks and strokes. It develops when the body does not use insulin effectively or fails to produce enough of it, allowing blood sugar levels to become dangerously high.
The disease is frequently associated with obesity and unhealthy diets. Among young women in England, rates have risen by almost 70 per cent over the past decade.
‘Our findings clearly show that the serious complications linked to type 2 diabetes become increasingly common over time,’ said Professor Naveed Sattar, the study’s lead author. ‘Obesity, unhealthy blood fats, high blood pressure and raised blood sugar can progressively damage blood vessels and vital organs.’
‘The results reinforce how important it is to diagnose type 2 diabetes early and provide thorough treatment as soon as possible, helping to lower the risk of serious complications.’
Within five years of a type 2 diabetes diagnosis, up to one in three people may develop heart failure, kidney disease or die
The study, presented at the Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes, examined health data from more than 1.6 million Americans diagnosed with type 2 diabetes between January 2010 and March 2024.
Participants had an average age of 59. Among those with a recorded body mass index, the average BMI was 31, a level classified as obese.
Almost three in four participants had high cholesterol, while more than two-thirds had high blood pressure.
Within five years of diagnosis, almost one in five patients had developed chronic kidney disease. The condition gradually reduces the kidneys’ ability to remove waste from the blood.
That figure was more than twice the risk recorded for heart failure, which occurs when the heart can no longer pump blood around the body effectively.
The study also found that patients who developed heart failure first were 42 per cent more likely to develop chronic kidney disease during the following five years.
Conversely, people who experienced kidney damage first had a 23 per cent higher risk of developing heart failure over the same period.
Together, the results point to a possible cycle in which damage to the heart and kidneys places further strain on other organs, accelerating a wider decline in health.
However, the researchers stressed that the study was observational and therefore cannot establish a direct cause-and-effect relationship.
The head of clinical at Diabetes UK said: ‘Heart failure and kidney disease are serious complications of type 2 diabetes, but they are not unavoidable.’
‘This research highlights the importance of understanding your risk of developing type 2 diabetes, securing an early diagnosis and receiving appropriate care and treatment.’
The findings add to growing evidence that the impact of type 2 diabetes extends far beyond blood sugar control alone.
It comes following a series of studies linking type 2 diabetes with a number of deadly cancers, including breast, bowel and lung.
Another study presented at the conference found women with the condition face a 22 per cent higher risk of cancer than those without, while men are 12 per cent more likely to develop the disease.
The risk is most pronounced for obesity-related cancers, including kidney, pancreatic and liver.
Previous research suggests cancer is now the leading cause of death among those with type 2 diabetes in Britain.
But with an estimated nine in ten cases linked to excess weight, experts believe weight loss jabs like Wegovy and Mounjaro could help turn the tide on the diabetes epidemic.
The drugs – originally developed to treat diabetes – are now used to help people lose excess weight, manage blood sugar, and prevent heart attacks.
Research has also suggested they can cut the risk of kidney disease by 24 per cent.
Chronic kidney disease is estimated to affect one in ten people worldwide, equivalent to about 850 million people. It is projected to become the fifth most common cause of death by 2050.
It tends not to cause symptoms early on, but at a later stage unexplained weight loss, swollen ankles, hands or feet, shortness of breath, fatigue, itchy skin, muscle cramps, nausea and headaches can all be a sign of the disease.
Separate analysis from the European pharmaceutical industry found type 2 diabetes currently costs the UK economy more than £3billion a year. Cardiovascular disease accounts for £2.6billion of this burden, while chronic kidney disease contributes a further £2.3billion.
