ORLANDO, Fla. – The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been notably calm so far, but that quiet stretch is now nearing a milestone that could land the season in the record books.
If the Atlantic does not produce a hurricane before Sept. 11, the season will match the record for the latest first hurricane of the modern satellite era, tying benchmarks set in 2002 and 2013.
In 2013, Hurricane Humberto developed on Sept. 11. Eleven years earlier, Hurricane Gustav also became that season’s first hurricane on the same date.
Now, the 2026 hurricane season is closing in on that same historic threshold.
Why has the Atlantic been so quiet?
A major factor behind the slow start has been El Niño, which often strengthens upper-level winds over parts of the Atlantic Basin. Those winds increase wind shear, an atmospheric force that can prevent tropical systems from organizing and intensifying.
When wind shear is too strong, it can rip apart developing storms before they ever get the chance to grow into hurricanes.
[RELATED: El Niño has officially arrived. Here’s what it means for Florida]
But hurricane season isn’t over
Still, a quiet Atlantic should not be mistaken for the end of the hurricane season.
September is typically the peak of hurricane season, and the tropics can become active very quickly when conditions become more favorable. Hurricane season can also remain active well into October, with some significant storms forming late in the season.
So for now, this is a record watch, not a prediction that 2026 will break the record.
And most importantly, don’t let a quiet Atlantic lower your guard. Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
