SANTIAGO – As Chile approaches a contentious presidential runoff, the spotlight is on a former hard-right lawmaker who has expressed admiration for U.S. President Donald Trump. This candidate is set to face off against a member of the Communist Party, representing the current government.

José Antonio Kast, known for his ultraconservative views opposing abortion and same-sex marriage, is emerging as a strong contender. With approximately 70% of first-round votes favoring right-wing candidates, many Chileans are voicing concerns over organized crime, illegal immigration, and unemployment in what is known as one of Latin America’s most stable and prosperous nations.

Surprisingly leading the race, Kast has openly praised certain aspects of Chile’s past dictatorship and has distanced himself from the traditional conservative party by establishing his own Republican Party.

After securing nearly 24% of the vote, Kast has built his campaign on promises to tackle crime aggressively, construct a substantial border wall, and deport thousands of undocumented immigrants.

Jeannette Jara, who previously served as labor minister under President Gabriel Boric’s leftist administration, narrowly leads with 27% of the vote. Her platform focuses on expanding the country’s social safety net while also addressing issues like money laundering and drug trafficking.

Since neither candidate captured over 50% of the total votes, the decision now moves to a decisive second round, scheduled for December 14.

Conservatives sweep in first round of voting

The mood was ebullient at Kast’s campaign headquarters early Monday, where young Chileans wrapped in national flags drank beer and rolled cigarettes as workers took down the stage where Kast had proclaimed a radical transformation in the country’s security.

“We needed a safe candidate, someone with a firm hand to bring economic growth, attract investment, create jobs, strengthen the police and give them support,” said Ignacio Rojas, 20. “Chile isn’t safe anymore, and he’ll change that.”

The results seemed set to extend a growing regional shift across Latin America, as popular discontent with the economy simmers and right-wing challengers take over from leftist politicians who shot to power in the wake of the pandemic on lofty promises of social change and more equitable distribution of wealth, but largely failed to deliver.

“Economies are not growing, there are no new jobs, and people remember that 10 years ago they used to pay lower prices for almost everything,” said Patricio Navia, a Chilean analyst and professor at New York University.

“Voters are upset with governments all over the region,” he added.

Conservatives led the pack in Chile’s eight-candidate field, with populist businessman and celebrity economist Franco Parisi surprising pundits by securing 20% of the votes and third place. Like Kast, he ran a tough law and order campaign, vowing to plant land mines along Chile’s porous northern border to prevent people from crossing.

Another 14% of the votes went to Johannes Kaiser, a libertarian congressman and a former YouTube provocateur who campaigned as an even more radical alternative to Kast.

Chile’s traditional center-right coalition landed in fifth place, with establishment candidate Evelyn Matthei winning 12.5% of the vote.

Conservative runners-up endorse Kast

Not all of the divided right is guaranteed to go to Kast. Several Kaiser and Matthei voters interviewed at polling stations on Sunday — including members of the LGBTQ community, women and atheists — said they’d refuse to support Kast, citing his deeply conservative Christian values.

But it’s also unlikely that voters who supported Kaiser’s plans to deport undocumented migrants to prison in El Salvador, or Matthei’s plans to consider bringing back the death penalty, would vote for a lifelong member of Chile’s Communist Party.

There were no other left-wing front-runners, as all six parties in Chile’s governing coalition threw their weight behind Jara.

After learning of the election results late Sunday, Matthei rushed to Kast’s party headquarters to profess her support for her right-wing rival. “Chile needs a sharp change of direction,” she said.

Kaiser also promised to back Kast, saying his libertarian party would “ensure that a sound doctrine and defense of freedom are not abandoned.”

Parisi voters run the gamut, eschewing elites on the left and right. The political outsider was coy after the results came out, saying, “We don’t give anyone a blank check.”

“The burden of proof lies with both candidates,” he said. “They have to win people over.”

The region is trending right

Economic travails and fervent anti-incumbent sentiment appear to have fueled a gradual pendulum swing away from the left-wing leaders who were ascendant across the region just a few years ago.

In Argentina, radical libertarian President Javier Milei, elected in late 2023 on a vow to break with years of left-leaning populism, has dramatically cut public spending, doubling down on his close bond with Trump and reshaping Argentina’s foreign policy in line with the U.S.

Elections over the last year in Ecuador, El Salvador and Panama have kept right-wing leaders in office, while in Bolivia, restive voters outraged over a currency crisis punished the Movement Toward Socialism party and elected a conservative opposition candidate for the first time in nearly 20 years.

The right’s gains could buoy the U.S. as it competes for regional influence with China, some analysts say, with a new crop of leaders keen for American investment. Chile is the world’s largest copper producer and home to vast reserves of other minerals key to the global energy transition.

Like many hopeful leftists four years ago, President Boric, a young former student activist elected on the heels of Chile’s 2019 mass protests over widening inequality, pledged to raise taxes on the rich and adopt one of the world’s most progressive constitutions, ran into major legislative opposition.

That won’t be the case for Kast if he wins.

As results from parliamentary elections crystalized early Monday, it appeared that right-wing parties would hold a decisive majority in the 155-member lower house of Congress, a body that has skewed left since Chile’s 1990 return to democracy.