ORLANDO, Fla. – The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is about to begin, and unfortunately, many of us are still recovering from the impacts of last season.
A few of our official sources in tropical weather forecasting are already calling for another above-average year.
But how do these numbers stack up? Are you guilty of mentioning the classic phrase, “They say the same thing every year?”
Let’s reflect on the numbers, not only from last year but over the last five hurricane seasons. This allows us to evaluate and compare what was predicted by our sources with the actual events.
From the start, I’ll admit there will be “forecast busts.” It’s inevitable! However, I think you’ll be surprised at how closely many of the numbers align with the actual outcomes by the end of a season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University both predicted a hyperactive hurricane season for 2024.
Both offices forecasted approximately 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. This is more so true for CSU, which tends to prepare harder numbers than NOAA.
NOAA will integrate a margin of error into its forecasts. This way, it also shows the level of skill when it comes to predicting things like tropical cyclones several months in advance.
Last year, we most definitely missed the mark in terms of total named storms. However, both NOAA and especially CSU absolutely rocked the hurricane and major hurricane numbers.
CSU, for example, pinpointed 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. That is precisely what we observed during the last hurricane season.
Because of NOAA’s built in margin of error, we can’t quite say the same, although we definitely observed conditions within those very same margins.
Now, we get to the busts: 2023, the elephant in the room.
The 2023 hurricane season was characterized by a strong El Niño.
For those of you unfamiliar, the key correlation here is El Niño typically equals nothing during the Atlantic hurricane season. This is all due to a focusing of lift in the Pacific, which feeds thunderstorms. Those very same thunderstorms tend to produce more winds at all levels of the environment, which then flows toward the east into the Gulf, Caribbean and portions of the Atlantic.
So, both NOAA and CSU were looking at a fairly average if not slightly BELOW average year. That was surely not the case. The 2023 hurricane season ranked fourth for most active on record, with a 20 total named storms.
However, I add this disclaimer – both forecast sources once again were very close in their total hurricane and major hurricane predictions.
The 2022 hurricane season was once more predicted as an active hurricane season, with both sources aiming for nearly 20 named storms in their forecasts. The primary factor going into this prediction was the presence of a La Niña in the tropical Pacific ocean.
La Niña, as opposed to El Nino, tends to FAVOR Atlantic tropical development. It relaxes the winds that tear apart the tropical circulations and helps to emphasize more lift for Atlantic storms to get rising and firing.
Despite the La Niña cranking on the Pacific side of things, and warmer-than-average water temperatures in the Atlantic, the 2022 season bottomed out at 14 named storms. Both NOAA and CSU were far too high in their total named storms, but AGAIN – came within a single storm or two, in terms of predicting how many hurricanes and major hurricanes we’d observe.
With all that being said, what is the takeaway here?
We have to look at these outlooks from a preparedness perspective. Statistically speaking, anytime you have an active hurricane season, you’re bound to have an impactful one.
Granted, like everything in weather, this isn’t always true. But a large majority of the time, the more named storms there are, the greater hurricanes and, naturally, the greater landfalls.
While every tropical system can be treacherous in their own right, we all come to recognize the hurricanes — and more so the MAJOR hurricanes — are the heavyweight contenders we need to bob and weave on the canvas as best we can. These are more so the numbers you want to pay attention to.
Forecasting a total number of named storms can be tricky. Sometimes, what are called “intra-seasonal factors” can play a huge role in whether a tropical wave gets to spinning at all. Things like changes in sea surface temperature as we wander from summer to fall, dry air and Saharan dust.
Last year, wave-breaking (literally like an ocean wave breaks at the beach) was a huge contributor of a quiet midsection of the 2024 hurricane season.
Overall, depending on who you get your information from (be careful what you find on TikTok), these pre-season forecasts are built to give us a GENERAL overview of what to expect during a season. Higher numbers? The likelihood we see more impacts. Greater hurricanes expected? Make sure you’re prepped if something strong starts heading your way.
It isn’t more so the numbers you want to pay close attention to, but the IDEA behind a hurricane season. As mentioned above, the more named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes predicted, you can get a feel for what the season as a whole will look like.
Both of our authorities in pre-seasonal forecasts do a phenomenal job at building their numbers before a hurricane season begins. It can be very difficult to pinpoint whether to expect rain at your house tomorrow, let alone forecast how many hurricanes and major hurricanes we could see from June 1 through November.
Your News 6 Weather Team will always break down what these stats mean to you and how to better equip your home and family for Mother Nature’s wrath when one of these pinwheeling beasts tries to head toward us. You can also count on your pre-season forecasts for painting a fairly accurate image of what to anticipate when tropical systems do begin to spin up.
At the end of the day, remember: 20 storms can spin in either direction, west or east of where you live. It only takes ONE to make it a bad season for you.
See more preparedness tips and other hurricane season preps by clicking here.
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