WASHINGTON – The recent retirements of Iowa’s leading Republican figures, Governor Kim Reynolds and U.S. Senator Joni Ernst, have set the stage for a dynamic political shift in the state’s primary elections this Tuesday. This development has sparked a series of competitive races as candidates vie to fill their vacated positions, leading to a cascade of open seats further down the ballot.
The outcomes of these primaries will be instrumental in the upcoming November midterm elections, where Iowa’s U.S. Senate and House seats may play a crucial role in shaping the balance of power in Congress. Additionally, the election of a new governor could significantly influence the 2028 presidential race, given Iowa’s pivotal role in the early stages of presidential campaigns.
In the race to succeed Ernst, who declared in 2025 that she would not pursue a third Senate term, two Republicans and two Democrats are competing in the primaries. On the Republican side, U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson is up against former state Senator Jim Carlin. The Democratic contenders are state Representative Josh Turek and state Senator Zach Wahls. Notably, Carlin previously ran in the 2022 Iowa Senate primary, securing approximately 27% of the vote against U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley.
Similarly, Governor Reynolds announced in 2025 her decision not to seek a third term. The Republican primary has attracted a diverse field, including state Representative Eddie Andrews, U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra, entrepreneur and education advocate Zach Lahn, former state Representative Brad Sherman, and former state administrative services director Adam Steen.
The Republican nominee will face Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand in the general election, who stands unchallenged in his primary. Sand is currently the only Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa.
The campaigns of Hinson and Feenstra have also opened up contests in Iowa’s 2nd and 4th Congressional Districts, respectively. While Feenstra’s district leans heavily Republican and is not expected to impact the overall control of the House significantly, Hinson’s district presents a more competitive landscape. Despite this, Hinson secured reelection in 2024 with a commanding 57% of the vote.
In Iowa’s most competitive congressional seats, Republican U.S. Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of the 1st District and Zach Nunn of the 3rd District are both seeking reelection. Miller-Meeks faces a rematch with her 2024 primary opponent, advertising executive David Pautsch, who received about 44% of the vote. The Democratic field includes former state Rep. Christina Bohannan, who came within 800 votes of defeating Miller-Meeks in 2024.
In the 3rd Congressional District, both Nunn and his Democratic opponent, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, are unopposed in their primaries.
Republican Donald Trump received roughly 54% of the 2024 presidential vote in both the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts and about 52% of the 3rd District vote.
Polk, Linn and Scott counties are Iowa’s most populous, and all three play major roles in both Republican and Democratic statewide primaries. Johnson County is the fourth largest, but as home to Iowa City and the University of Iowa it is an overwhelming Democratic stronghold and tends to exert much less influence in Republican primaries.
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:
When do polls close?
Polls close at 8 p.m. CT, which is 9 p.m. ET.
What’s on the ballot?
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, auditor, state Senate and state House.
Who gets to vote?
Only voters registered with a political party may participate in that party’s primary. However, voters may change their party affiliations at the polls on the day of the primary.
How many voters are there?
As of May 4, there were about 2.1 million registered voters in Iowa, including about 692,000 registered Republicans, about 496,000 registered Democrats and about 589,000 voters not registered with any party.
How many people actually vote?
About 196,000 Republican primary votes and about 157,000 Democratic primary votes were cast in the 2022 U.S. Senate primaries.
How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?
About 16% of the Republican primary vote and about 25% of the Democratic primary vote in the 2022 U.S. Senate primaries was cast before primary day.
As of Thursday, about 41,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, roughly 26,000 in the Democratic primary and more than 15,000 in the Republican primary.
When are early and absentee votes released?
Nearly all counties release the results of absentee-by-mail voting at the start of the night. However, counties vary in terms of when they release in-person absentee voting results.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
In the last contested state primary in 2022, the AP first reported results at 9:12 p.m. ET, or 12 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 2:29 a.m. ET, with more than 99% of total votes counted.
When will the AP declare a winner?
The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
How do recounts work?
Iowa does not have an automatic recount law, but candidates may request and pay for a recount. Candidates do not have to pay for recounts when the margin is less than 1% of the total vote or fewer than 50 votes, whichever is larger. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 154 days until the 2026 midterm elections.
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