Netanyahu Faces Critical Test Following Israel’s Strike on Iran

JERUSALEM – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on the mission of his lifetime.

For years, the seasoned leader has prioritized the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, frequently addressing the topic with apocalyptic urgency in his speeches. Now, Netanyahu’s pivotal moment has come.

In the wake of battling Iran’s regional allies following Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023, Netanyahu has shifted his focus to what he calls the “head of the octopus,” launching an unprecedented, open-ended military campaign against Iran and its nuclear program.

This bold strategy is enabled by several factors, including the weakening of Iranian-supported militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon, and the reelection and backing of U.S. President Donald Trump.

But success is not guaranteed, and the outcome of the escalating conflict could determine the fate of Netanyahu’s government and shape his legacy.

Here’s a closer look:

Netanyahu’s history of warnings on Iran

Netanyahu began warning about the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran in the 1990s — even before his first term as prime minister at the end of the decade. He returned to office in 2009 and has served as prime minister almost continuously since then, rarely missing an opportunity to portray the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran as a threat to Israel’s existence and menace to the world.

In 2012, he famously displayed a crude cartoon illustrating what he said was Iran’s march toward the bomb during a speech to the U.N. assembly.

Three years later, he delivered a controversial speech to the U.S. Congress arguing against then-President Barack Obama’s emerging nuclear deal with Iran. The speech infuriated the White House and failed to block the deal. But it delighted Republicans and laid the groundwork for Trump to pull out of the agreement three years later.

Netanyahu has frequently compared Iran’s theocratic leadership to the Nazis, at times drawing the ire of Holocaust scholars and survivor groups. He turned to that familiar playbook this week as he announced the latest attacks on Iran.

“Eighty years ago, the Jewish people were the victims of a Holocaust perpetrated by the Nazi regime,” he said. “Today, the Jewish state refuses to be a victim of a nuclear Holocaust perpetrated by the Iranian regime.”

Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. But its enrichment of uranium to near-weapons grade levels and failure to cooperate with international inspectors have raised doubts about those claims.

The head of the U.N. nuclear agency has warned that Iran has enough enriched uranium to make several bombs. The agency censured Iran this week for failing to comply with nonproliferation obligations, one day before the Israeli strikes began.

Why attack Iran now?

Netanyahu for years has threatened to strike Iran, repeatedly saying that all options were “on the table.”

But never before has he pulled the trigger due to opposition by domestic rivals and security chiefs, questions about the feasibility of such a risky operation and the opposition of a string of U.S. presidents.

But things have changed over the past two years, and Netanyahu now believes he has a chance to shape the region in his own image.

Since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack triggered the ongoing war in Gaza, Israel has systematically degraded a network of Iranian allies across the region.

The war in Gaza has decimated the Palestinian militant group Hamas, but at a devastating price for the territory’s civilian population. Last year, Israel also inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, severely weakening the group and contributing to the downfall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, another key Iranian ally. And during a brief round of fighting with Iran last year, Israel knocked out much of its enemies’ air-defense systems.

With Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” in tatters and Iran unable to defend itself against Israel’s air force, there was little to deter Israel from taking action this week.

Trump provided the final piece of the puzzle. After surprising Israel earlier this year with his resumption of nuclear talks with Iran, Trump grew frustrated with the lack of progress in those talks.

Notified about the Israeli plans, the U.S. president appears to have put up little resistance, creating a rare window of opportunity for Israel.

Will Netanyahu succeed?

It is too early to say.

The Israeli operation appears to have gotten off to a smooth start – with Israel striking dozens of targets and killing senior Iranian military figures. But it remains unclear how much damage Israel has inflicted on Iran’s nuclear program.

For now, the divisive and embattled Netanyahu appears to be riding a wave of support at home. Even the political opposition, which tried to topple Netanyahu in a parliamentary vote earlier in the week, has come out in support of the Iran operation.

But things could change quickly. After an initial wave of support for Israel’s war against Hamas, the country is now deeply divided. With the fighting now over 20 months old, many believe Netanyahu has unnecessarily dragged out the conflict in a self-serving campaign to remain in office.

Likewise, public support for the Iranian operation could quickly turn if Iran’s missile attacks on Israel cause heavy casualties or continue to disrupt life in Israel for an extended period. A debacle on the battlefield – such as the capture of an Israeli fighter pilot by Iran – could also reverse Netanyahu’s fortunes. Netanyahu’s hints that he is seeking regime change in Iran — a difficult and complicated task — could further hurt his standing.

Why is success so important for Netanyahu?

After a record-setting tenure in office, Netanyahu has a complicated legacy. He is the object of affection and adoration among his supporters who see him as a wily politician and distinguished statesman. But he is intensely disdained by his many detractors, who see him as a divisive and populist cynic.

Few on either side would disagree that his legacy has been permanently tarnished by the Oct. 7 attacks, the deadliest day in Israel’s history.

Netanyahu now sees an opportunity to reshape that legacy once again and go down in history as the man who saved his country from nuclear annihilation, not the prime minister who presided over its darkest moment.