(NewsNation) — The days of 3% mortgages are gone, and 6% loans are steadily becoming the norm.
About 20% of U.S. homeowners with mortgages now have a rate of 6% or higher — the largest proportion observed since 2015, based on new Redfin data from the second quarter.
That proportion has nearly tripled in just three years, rising from about 7% of homeowners in mid-2022 to nearly 20% today.
The trend isn’t surprising. Mortgage rates have hovered above 6% since late 2022. But the shift could have big implications for the housing market.
In recent times, the phenomenon known as the “lock-in effect” has restricted home supply, as many homeowners chose to remain in their homes instead of sacrificing their 3% mortgage rates. This decision was financially sensible but also contributed to limited housing inventory and increased prices.
The increase in mortgages with rates over 6% indicates that this effect may be loosening. Should rates decrease, more homeowners might consider relocating, which could help alleviate some pressure on housing costs.
Today, just 53% of mortgaged homeowners have a rate below 4%, down from a record 65% in early 2022, according to Redfin.
In many parts of the country, for-sale inventory has already returned to pre-pandemic levels, the real estate brokerage noted.
“Life doesn’t stand still — people get new jobs, grow their families, downsize after retirement, or simply want to live in a different neighborhood,” noted Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, in the report. “These needs are starting to surpass the financial advantages of holding onto a low-interest mortgage.”
For now, though, the uptick in inventory hasn’t sparked a major jump in sales, as buyers remain sidelined by elevated mortgage rates and high prices.
“Rates haven’t decreased enough to significantly impact decisions — prospective buyers need to see a more noticeable change in their potential monthly payment before things begin to shift,” stated Mariah O’Keefe, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Seattle, in the report.
The previous week saw the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.30%, according to Freddie Mac. While this is a decline from the 7% rate at the year’s start, it remains over twice as high as 2021’s levels.
“Shark Tank” investor Kevin O’Leary recently told NewsNation he sees 5.5% as the “magic number” to get buyers off the sidelines, though it’s not clear when that might happen.
Those hoping the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut would bring mortgage relief may be disappointed, since the move was already priced in by markets. In fact, mortgage rates ticked up slightly last week, even as the Fed cut rates for the first time in 2025.
History suggests the sub-4% mortgage stretch from late 2019 to early 2022 was an anomaly, not the norm. Rates topped 10% through much of the 1980s and stayed above 6% throughout the 1990s.
Redfin’s report was based on Federal Housing Finance Agency mortgage data through the second quarter of 2025, the most recent available.
