Texas voters are split on the Republicans’ redistricting push, which could net five more GOP House seats ahead of the midterms, new polling shows.
In a Texas survey from Emerson College Polling, 38 percent of voters opposed the proposal to redraw congressional maps, just slightly more than 36 percent who supported it. Another 26 percent were unsure.
Support for the plan was significantly higher among Republicans, at 58 percent, than among Democrats, at 15 percent, and independents, at 24 percent.
Texas Democrats have fled the state in a last-ditch bid to deprive the state Legislature of the numbers it needs to function, stalling the redistricting proposal from moving through an ongoing special session though Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is expected to call another.
The redistricting plan, backed by President Trump, could help GOP numbers in the House ahead of next year’s elections, as the party looks to defend its slim majority in the upper chamber.
Asked whether they agree with Trump’s July claim that Republicans in Texas are “entitled to five more congressional seats,” 40 percent of voters in the Emerson poll agreed, 38 percent who disagreed and 22 percent were neutral.
Republicans already hold 25 of 38 congressional seats in Texas, but the changes could boost them to a 30-8 red advantage.
The state House legislators who left Texas face hefty fines for breaking quorum, as well as threats of arrest and removal from their seats.
Asked whether these Democrats should be arrested, 41 percent of respondents in the poll agreed, 37 percent disagreed and 22 percent were neutral.
Sen. Jon Cornyn (R-Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are among the figures leaning into the redistricting battle. Cornyn has pressed for the FBI to help find runaway Texas Democrats. And an Illinois judge this week denied Paxton’s request to hold Texas Democrats who fled to the Prairie State in contempt.
Their moves come against the backdrop of a competitive primary fight for the Senate in 2026, as Paxton lodges a conservative challenge against the incumbent.
Majorities of both Cornyn and Paxton supporters in the Emerson poll said that quorum-breaking legislators should be arrested, but the sentiment was 11 points higher among Paxton voters.
The poll was conducted Aug. 11-12 among 1,000 Texas active registered voters and had a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
