Pressure Mounts on a Weakened Hamas to Consider Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan

JERUSALEM – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have finally outmaneuvered Hamas.

After enduring months of allegations of genocide, diplomatic isolation, and global pressure to cease hostilities in Gaza, Netanyahu has consented to a ceasefire arrangement with U.S. President Donald Trump.

The 20-point plan, unveiled by Trump and Netanyahu at the White House, greatly favors Israel.

Hamas has announced that it is still assessing the plan and will issue a response soon. However, with Trump gathering international backing for the proposal, even from some of Hamas’ closest allies, the Islamic militant group may find it challenging to reject the offer.

“Instead of Hamas isolating us, we turned the tables and isolated Hamas,” Netanyahu boasted in a social media video before leaving Washington.

Here’s a closer look:

Netanyahu’s vision of ‘total victory’

Throughout nearly two years of conflict, Netanyahu has vowed to push forward until achieving “total victory” – not only securing the release of hostages held by Hamas and defeating them in battle but also ousting them from power and dismantling their military strength.

Given Hamas’ deep roots in Palestinian society, critics have derided this vision as unrealistic. But Trump’s plan largely validates this goal.

Under the plan, Hamas would be required to release all hostages, both living and deceased, shortly after its implementation. They would also have to disarm and transfer authority to a group of neutral technocrats under the supervision of an international body led by Trump and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Israel would maintain an indefinite military presence in Gaza, especially along its border with Israel. An international security force, mainly consisting of troops from Arab and Muslim nations, would oversee security within Gaza. Additionally, the U.S. would spearhead a significant reconstruction effort in Gaza, backed by international funding.

The plan proposes an eventual involvement of the Palestinian Authority – which Netanyahu opposes. However, it stipulates that the authority, which manages parts of the West Bank, must undergo a comprehensive reform process that might take several years to complete.

The Trump plan is even more vague about a future Palestinian state – another nonstarter with Netanyahu. While it refers to a possible “credible pathway” to a two-state solution, the language is unclear and there are no timelines, leaving the door open for Netanyahu to delay or ignore the issue.

In his social media video, Netanyahu insisted he had not agreed to a Palestinian state. “It’s a danger to Israel and of course we won’t agree to it,” he said.

So what’s in it for Hamas?

Hamas, which triggered the war on Oct. 7, 2023, can claim some victories under the plan.

Most critically, it requires Israel to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including some 250 who are serving life sentences for convictions in deadly attacks on Israelis. Such releases are painful and unpopular for the Israeli public.

Palestinians, however, view the prisoners as heroes and victims in a struggle against Israeli occupation, and any release would be seen by the Palestinian public as a major accomplishment.

Hamas can also claim that it forced Netanyahu to acknowledge Palestinian statehood aspirations, even if the wording in the plan is vague.

Israel also made other concessions: Trump and Israel abandoned a plan to push Gaza’s 2 million Palestinians out of the territory. The new proposal says all Palestinians can stay, and anyone who decides to leave will be allowed to return.

Israel also pledged not to annex or resettle Gaza – a dream favored by Netanyahu’s ultranationalist coalition allies. That comes after Netanyahu, under U.S. and Arab pressure, appears to have dropped his threats to annex the West Bank.

The Trump plan does not mention the West Bank. Arab officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations, said such language was removed at Israel’s request.

An offer it can’t refuse

Despite its small gains, Hamas appears to come out the big loser under the Trump plan. Yet it may not be able to refuse the offer. Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that Hamas has “three or four days” to respond to the proposal.

After two years of war, Hamas has suffered heavy losses and wields only a small fraction of the power it once held. While it’s difficult to assess its popularity in Gaza, it is clear that many in the devastated territory want the war to end at any cost.

In addition, its main allies in the region — Iran and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah — have been greatly weakened by Israeli and American attacks.

Arab countries’ expressions of support for the proposal also could back Hamas into a corner.

A joint statement by Arab and Muslim countries welcomed the proposal and expressed their readiness to work toward finalizing and implementing it. They included Turkey, Egypt and Qatar – which have good working ties with Hamas – and other influential countries, such as Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

Still, the text of the proposal released by the White House on Monday raised reservations among some Arab countries, Arab officials told The Associated Press.

They said the text had been changed from what they had discussed with Trump previously to make it more favorable to Israel. They pointed to the vague terms about the withdrawal of Israel’s troops, the lack of a timeframe for allowing the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza and the lack of a clear pathway to a state.

The officials said their countries were in touch with U.S. officials about the changes. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the behind-the-scenes talks.

That may give Hamas room to try to negotiate more favorable changes into the proposal.

But weakened by war, and increasingly isolated in the region, it may have no choice but to go along with the plan.

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AP correspondent Samy Magdy contributed reporting from Cairo.