WASHINGTON – A Republican-backed bill, initially expected to sail through Congress, aims to allocate approximately $70 billion for immigration enforcement during the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term. However, its progress has hit a snag.
The holdup stems from contentious elements within the bill, including funding for White House ballroom security and the establishment of a $1.8 billion fund designed to address claims of government mistreatment. This delay not only postpones a key GOP initiative but also casts doubt on the party’s broader legislative agenda, particularly the potential passage of another significant, party-focused fiscal package, often referred to in Washington as “Reconciliation 3.0.”
In recent weeks, Republicans have been strategizing to craft such a bill, which they hope will resonate with voters ahead of the midterm elections. The intent is to use it as a final persuasive push in their campaign efforts.
House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, both hailing from Louisiana, are actively engaging with committee and caucus leaders to gather support for proposals with strong backing from party members. Their objective is to build upon last summer’s major tax and spending cuts by proposing a bill that significantly boosts Pentagon funding while implementing cuts elsewhere, which they argue is a move to curb government waste and fraud.
This endeavor carries substantial weight during an election year. Successfully passing the bill would bolster the GOP’s narrative of legislative efficacy, while failure could highlight divisions within the party, potentially driving voters to consider alternative options.
As Republicans prepare for the upcoming debate, their goal is to secure passage of this bill before the August recess.
House Republicans sound confident
Johnson navigated the House GOP’s slim majority in passing Trump’s tax and spending cuts bill last summer. The vote was 218-214. At the time, Republicans could afford to lose three votes from within their ranks. They lost just two.
They’ll have a thin margin of error again, but Johnson said he’s even more confident of success this time around.
“It will be just as beautiful, but not as big, so it’ll have less provisions and less things to get everybody to yes on,” he said.
Rep. Jodey Arrington, chairman of the House Budget Committee, said Republicans are just as motivated as they were last year on the tax cuts bill.
“This one, I think you’ll have potentially money to support our troops in conflict,” said Arrington, of Texas. “I can’t imagine a Republican not wanting to support our troops and military community in a time of conflict.”
The Trump administration has called on Republicans to provide $350 billion to defense through a reconciliation bill.
But Rep. Brendan Boyle, the lead Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said Republicans will have a more difficult path than they did with Trump’s big tax and spending cuts bill.
“I think it will be for a couple of reasons. First is the president’s approval rating. He was at a much higher level a year ago than he is right now,” said Boyle, of Pennsylvania. “Number 2, we are much closer to the November midterm elections. So, if you’re one of a dozen or a couple dozen House Republicans who are really vulnerable in a swing district, you have to think even more carefully about voting for something that has even more health care cuts in it.”
The tax cuts bill that passed last summer reduced spending on Medicaid by more than $900 billion over a decade. It also reduced spending on nutrition assistance by about $187 billion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Caution in the Senate
Senate Majority Leader John Thune called a third reconciliation bill to get around the filibuster a “potential option,” hardly a ringing endorsement.
“We haven’t made any commitments on that, but we’re hearing people out,” said Thune, of South Dakota.
Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina said lawmakers should know what will be in the bill before the legislative process begins. That way, it’s less likely to unravel.
“If it just becomes another exercise where you’re not really sure what’s going to be the end product, then I think it’s a mistake even to pursue it,” Tillis said. “We ought to be smart about it if we do a third one, but it is kind of a moonshot.”
Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said she worried about the strategy.
“A third reconciliation may or may not happen. I’m just being direct,” she said.
Little time and fractured relations
The House is expected to be in session for about 24 more days before it breaks for its August recess. That leaves little time to pass a budget blueprint in both chambers, which is the first hurdle for pursuing party-line tax and spending bills. Committees would also have to wrap up their work advancing their portions of the legislation.
Another hurdle could be Trump’s treatment of current senators whose votes he will need for any package to become law. Trump endorsed opponents of two senators who faced stiff primary challenges and eventually lost — Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas.
Cassidy has already shown more willingness to buck the president. Fresh off his primary loss, he voted last week to advance a bill that seeks to force Trump to withdraw from hostilities with Iran.
What could make it into the bill
Lawmakers said they could tweak and resurrect some proposals that did not pass muster with the Senate parliamentarian for inclusion in last year’s reconciliation bill. For example, Republicans tried to prevent states from providing Medicaid coverage for immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally.
Rep. August Pfluger of Texas, chairman of the Republican Study Committee, said the bill should rest on three pillars, making the country more affordable and secure while reducing fraud.
Among the group’s recommendations is a proposal to eliminate the capital gains tax on the sale of homes to first-time homebuyers, which they say would incentivize the market, and a proposal to impose a 5% tax on funds sent by noncitizens back to their home countries.
Arrington said he would also like to tighten the rules for the earned income tax credit, a program that increases the financial reward for working but that also has a high rate of improper payments. He also called for prohibiting immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally from living in housing units financed by a housing tax credit paid to developers who construct and rehab affordable housing for renters.
“There’s a lot more work to be done to build on what we did in the first one with Medicaid and SNAP (nutrition assistance), with respect to fraud,” Arrington said.
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Associated Press writers Mary Clare Jalonick and Stephen Groves contributed to this report.
