Tensions are palpable as Russia gears up to celebrate its most significant secular holiday this Saturday, amid heightened security concerns due to the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Signs of internal dissatisfaction further overshadow Moscow’s annual festivities in Red Square.
Russia’s announcement of a unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine for Friday and Saturday quickly fell apart, with both Moscow and Kyiv accusing each other of continuing hostilities. This mirrors the recent collapse of Ukraine’s own unilateral ceasefire earlier in the week.
These accusations underscore the profound mistrust persisting between the two nations, more than four years after Russia’s comprehensive invasion of Ukraine. This enduring skepticism has hindered diplomatic efforts led by the U.S. to broker a peace agreement.
Ukraine’s advancements in drone and missile technology have enabled it to effectively target areas deep within Russia, particularly striking key oil facilities with precision in recent months.
Simultaneously, murmurs of dissatisfaction with certain Kremlin wartime strategies have cast a spotlight on President Vladimir Putin. He is set to deliver a speech on Saturday in honor of Victory Day, which commemorates 81 years since the triumph over Nazi Germany in World War II. Historically, this occasion has been a platform for national pride, military displays, and grand celebrations.
This year’s observance is notably different.
The Russia-Ukraine war rages unabated
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed Friday that its forces in Ukraine “completely ceased combat operations and remained at their previously occupied lines and positions” from midnight, when Putin’s unilateral ceasefire came into force.
But it accused Ukrainian forces of continuing to strike Russian positions as well as civilian infrastructure in border areas of the Belgorod and the Kursk regions.
Air defenses shot down 390 Ukrainian drones and six Neptune long-range guided missiles aimed at Russia after midnight, according to the ministry.
A Ukrainian drone strike hit the administrative building of the Southern Russia Air Navigation branch in Rostov-on-Don, forcing 13 airports in the south of the country to suspend operations, Russia’s Transport Ministry said.
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a different story. Russian forces continued attacking on the front line overnight, he said, while Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 56 Russian drones.
“All this clearly shows that there was not even a pretense of a ceasefire attempt from the Russian side,” Zelenskyy said.
Zelenskyy also claimed Friday another Ukrainian long-range strike on a Russian oil sector facility, this time in the Yaroslavl region, more than 700 kilometers (400 miles) from the border. He didn’t specify when the attack happened.
Russia warns of heavy retaliation if Moscow is attacked
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that Moscow would take decisive action — including a potential mass strike on Kyiv — if Ukrainian attacks disrupt official events scheduled for Saturday.
“We have strengthened our focus on the possibility of retaliatory measures,” presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told journalists Thursday.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry advised foreign embassies and international organizations located in Kyiv to evacuate their offices in case such a strike did take place, and the Defense Ministry urged civilians to evacuate, too.
Zelenskyy, meanwhile, expressed surprise that foreign dignitaries would be going to Moscow for the commemorations.
Malaysia’s King Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar, Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith, and Belarus’ authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko were due in the Russian capital. Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia, a European Union member, was to meet with Putin and lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier memorial just outside the Kremlin walls but stay away from the Red Square parade.
Difficulties mount for Putin and dampen the annual occasion
Putin, who has ruled Russia for more than 25 years, has used the USSR’s victory in World War II to rally support for him and the war in Ukraine, as well as to project Russia’s global clout.
That made it surprising that the traditional parade will take place without tanks, missiles and other military equipment, aside from war planes in a traditional flyover, for the first time in nearly two decades. Officials put the move down to the “current operational situation,” without elaborating.
Russia’s bigger and better-equipped army has been engaged in a slow, hard slog in Ukraine. The February 2022 invasion was supposed to deliver a quick win for the Kremlin.
Ukraine’s long-range attacks deep inside Russia are rattling the Kremlin. The attacks are targeting Russian oil production as well as manufacturing plants and military depots.
Some Russians are disgruntled about internet censorship and government control over online activities, including the blocking of the popular messaging app Telegram.
All mobile internet access and text messaging services will be restricted in Moscow on Saturday, according Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media, which said that the drastic measures were to ensure public safety
The restrictions will apply to websites on the Russian government’s “white list,” a group of state-approved online services that are kept available during the country’s increasingly common connectivity blackouts. Home internet and Wi-Fi will be unaffected, authorities said.
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