NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — According to a recent analysis by the Pew Charitable Trusts, Tennessee ranks among the U.S. states most at risk from the effects of rising tariffs.

The report evaluated states based on criteria like the proportion of imports relative to their gross domestic product, the intensity of manufacturing, and their dependence on trade. Tennessee emerged as particularly susceptible due to its significant manufacturing presence and the substantial role imports play in its economy.

In 2024, Tennessee imported approximately $120 billion in goods from around the globe, representing 21.9% of the state’s GDP, well above the national average of 11.2%. Notably, imports from China constituted about 3.8% of Tennessee’s economy, the highest percentage in the nation.

These imports from China were notably concentrated in five key sectors:

• $9.1 billion in computer & electronic products
• $4 billion in chemicals
• $1.4 nillion in transportation equipment
• $1.1 billion in miscellaneous manufactured commodities
• $1.1 billion in electrical equipment, appliances and components

Nationally, the U.S. imported $440 billion worth of goods from China in 2024, which made up 1.5% of the country’s overall economic activity.

News 2 has been monitoring the tariff impacts on Tennessee, particularly concerning soybean farmers. China, once the largest buyer of American soybeans, did not purchase any in September. Despite these challenges, some Tennessee Republicans continue to endorse tariffs.

“The tariffs are going to be a long-term benefit for us. I stand with the president in that,” Matt Van Epps, the Republican nominee for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, told News 2.

Gov. Bill Lee (R-TN) previously called tariffs a “courageous” move to address trade imbalances between the U.S. and other countries. This month, Lee told News 2 he hasn’t gone to President Donald Trump about the tariff’s impacts on soybean farmers in Tennessee.

“I have not spoken directly to the president about that,” Lee said.

Justin Theal, senior officer with The Pew Charitable Trusts, sent News 2 the following statement on the research:

“Our research found that every state faces some fiscal exposure to rising tariffs, but the effects aren’t evenly spread. States with strong manufacturing and trade sectors—like Tennessee—are among the most vulnerable. In 2024, imports made up about 22% of Tennessee’s economy, roughly double the national average. The state relies heavily on imported chemicals, electronics, and transportation equipment, so when tariffs raise those costs, the effects can ripple through local industries and eventually show up in state revenues.

Because more than half of Tennessee’s tax revenue comes from sales taxes, the state is also especially sensitive to changes in consumer spending. Even small slowdowns in purchases can have an outsized impact on its bottom line.

States can’t control federal trade policy, but they can control how prepared they are for its fallout. The best step is to plan for uncertainty, something many states are already doing. More than half have revised their revenue forecasts downward for fiscal 2026 to account for tariff-related uncertainties and other mounting fiscal and economic disruptions.

States can also strengthen their fiscal resilience by testing how their budgets would hold up under different economic scenarios. Tools like budget stress tests and long-term budget assessments help policymakers see how slower growth or higher costs could affect revenues and spending—and plan accordingly.”