WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump aimed for the brief and intense U.S. involvement in the Middle East to wrap up as neatly as a TV show’s season finale.
In the days following the suspense over whether he would support Israel’s assaults on Iran, a dramatic bombing run on nuclear sites took place. Trump then surprised many by announcing a ceasefire agreement to halt the conflict.
Trump even gave the conflict a definitive name — “THE 12 DAY WAR” — leaving no doubt that he viewed the storyline as complete.
Now the question is whether the rest of the world will follow the script that Trump has laid out.
An unsteady ceasefire adds uncertainty
The ceasefire has already shown signs of instability, with Israel and Iran exchanging fire soon after it was supposed to take effect. Trump expressed his displeasure with both nations on Tuesday, harshly criticizing them and demanding an end to the hostilities.
Thus far, they’ve obliged. However, it could be years before the world knows whether this latest round of warfare will mark a turn toward greater peace or be the harbinger of more bloodshed.
The terms of the ceasefire remain unclear, and there are lingering questions about how much of Iran’s nuclear program survived the strikes over the weekend, despite Trump’s claims that it was “totally obliterated.” In addition, the country’s theocratic leadership could retrench, jeopardizing the potential for durable diplomatic solutions to conflicts that have percolated in the region for decades.
“In the moment, he looks like a tough guy who produces results,” said Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “But when the dust settles and the blowback comes, you’re left thinking, wait a second, are we any better off?”
For now, those issues appeared far from Trump’s mind as the Republican president reveled in emerging unscathed from a foreign policy gamble that his predecessors never attempted. On social media, he posted a picture of himself kissing the American flag with the phrase “Trump was right about everything.”
How it unfolded
The fighting began nearly two weeks ago when Israeli attacked on Iran, targeting military leaders, scientists, missile launchers and anti-air defenses.
However, only the United States has the bombers and the weapons needed to penetrate Iranian nuclear facilities that are buried deep underground. Although Tehran has maintained that its atomic ambitions are only for peaceful purposes, U.S. and Israeli leaders have long feared that it would build a nuclear weapon.
American spy agencies did not believe the Iranian government had decided to take that step, despite enriching uranium to levels beyond what’s needed for civilian use. However, Trump seized an opportunity to strike with war already underway, brushing aside fears that he could become mired in exactly the kind of open-ended conflict in the Middle East that he had pledged to avoid.
He ordered U.S. bombers to fly halfway around the world to attack three nuclear facilities, then threatened more strikes if American troops faced retaliation.
It was the kind of dramatic action that has always appealed to Trump, who has cultivated an air of unpredictability and aggression on the global stage.
Iran was a top target of his brinksmanship during his first term. He called off U.S. strikes after Iran shot down an American drone, fearing that his response would be disproportionate, but he also assassinated one of the country’s top generals.
Two days after the U.S. strike on nuclear facilities, he announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire.
“CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE!” Trump wrote on social media, where he had been narrating every twist and turn of the conflict. “This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will!”
Approval is coming from unusual corners
Praise came from some unlikely corners of the American foreign policy establishment.
For example, Brett McGurk, who coordinated Middle East policy under President Joe Biden, said “this is about the best place we can be” and “I give extremely high marks to this national security team and President Trump for managing this crisis.”
Katulis isn’t so sure. He said the Trump administration “seems to be operating without a cogent diplomatic playbook” and “fixated on military tactics and operations in absence of an overall strategy.”
Before the war, Trump had been pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear program as part of a negotiated settlement. There’s no guarantee that Tehran will return to the bargaining table, although the president insisted that “IRAN WILL NEVER REBUILD THEIR NUCLEAR FACILITIES!”
“It was my great honor to Destroy All Nuclear facilities & capability, and then, STOP THE WAR!” Trump wrote on Tuesday as he flew to the annual summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the Netherlands.
Leon Panetta, who held top national security roles under President Barack Obama, chuckled at Trump’s stream of consciousness on social media.
“We always know what he’s thinking,” Panetta said, “but we don’t know whether what he’s thinking is really happening.”
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