10 Key Congressional Races That Could Decide Control of Washington

For the first two years of President Donald Trump’s second term, Republicans have commanded a Washington trifecta, holding the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives.

That dominance is now under pressure, with the midterm elections fast approaching and the GOP facing a difficult fight to preserve its grip on power.

A July Daily Mail/JL Partners poll found voters favoring a Democratic candidate in the November midterms by more than nine points, widening by a full point from the previous month.

Trump has also openly questioned the party’s prospects, voicing concern over whether conservative voters will turn out this fall when his own name is not on the ballot.

‘If I don’t run, will those people go out and vote, and that’s the one thing I can’t tell,’ Trump said recently.

Even so, Republicans are outpacing Democrats in fundraising, both at the national level and in critical battleground contests. That financial edge underscores a central reality of the midterms: control of Congress will likely come down not to party strategists in Washington, but to turnout in the competitive districts and states that will decide the map.

Below are the races most likely to shape the next Congress, as scandals, explosive allegations, and family turmoil upend some of the most closely watched contests in the country.

The US Senate

Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, and Democrats need to pick up at least four of them to control the upper chamber in the next Congress. The following 10 Senate races are likely to determine control of the Senate.

North Carolina Senate: Roy Cooper (D) versus Michael Whatley (R)

Cooper, North Carolina’s former governor, is facing off against Republican Michael Whatley, former chairman of the Republican National Committee. Cooper has won statewide elections for both Governor and Attorney General, while Whatley has not run for statewide office. Whatley enjoys a close relationship with Trump, as well as GOP donors due to his past role at the RNC, and he is helped by the fact that Trump has won North Carolina three times. Still, Democrats, including Cooper and current Governor Josh Stein, show that they can also win statewide by avoiding nationalizing races and focusing on local issues. Republican incumbent Thom Tillis chose not to seek re-election and has become a thorn in Trump’s side in his last few months in Washington, clashing with some of the most high-profile members of his administration, including former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem over disaster relief funds and assistance. The seat is rated as ‘lean Democrat‘ by the Cook Political Report.

Maine Senate: Susan Collins (R) versus Troy Jackson (D)

Fiercely independent GOP Senator Susan is in the midst of a tough re-election battle in Maine, which has one of the oldest electorates in the country. After her previous opponent Graham Platner dropped out of the race amid a slew of allegations of sexual misconduct and abuse, which he denies, Maine Democrats selected former state Senate President Troy Jackson as their nominee. But he has always been marred by his own controversies, including a revelation that he fathered children with his second cousin. The seat is rated to be a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report.

Georgia Senate: Jon Ossoff (D) versus Mike Collins (R)

Incumbent Democrat golden boy Jon Ossoff is seen as one of the party’s rising stars at the age of 39. Still, he faces one of the toughest reelection maps in the country in Georgia, a state Trump won in 2024 despite his clashes with fellow Republican and the state’s outgoing governor Brian Kemp. Ossoff’s prospects became slightly more favorable after House GOP lawmaker Mike Collins emerged victorious in the Republican Primary despite a slew of personal and personnel issues. It has been previously uncovered by Our News Outlet that Collins’ son-in-law shared white supremacist rhetoric, and that his top advisors have been referred to the House Ethics Committee over an alleged misuse of funds. Despite the controversies, Collins is likely to be helped in the race by spending to drive GOP voters to the polls in support of the gubernatorial nominee, Rick Jackson, who is independently wealthy. The seat is rated as ‘lean Democrat‘ by the Cook Political Report.

New Hampshire Senate: Chris Pappas (D) versus John Sununu (R)

Outgoing incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen declined to seek re-election to a fourth term in New Hampshire, in a seat which Democrats are likely to still hold in November. But Republcians will not go down without a fight. The state’s GOP governor, Kelly Ayotte, is highly popular, and the Sununu name is one of the most recognized in New Hampshire politics. John H Sununu, the father of the two Sununu brothers, Chris and John, served as the 75th Governor of New Hampshire in the 1980’s and was also White House Chief of Staff under President George HW Bush. Chris Sununu, John’s brother, served as Governor of New Hampshire, holding office from January 2017 to January 2025. John has also been elected to both the US House and US Senate by Granite Staters, most recently serving in the Senate from 2003 to 2009. He has since been in the private sector. Sununu still has to formally become the nominee, as New Hampshire’s primary does not take place until September. The seat is rated ‘lean Democrat‘ by the Cook Political Report.

Ohio Senate: Jon Husted (R) versus Sherrod Brown (D)

Incumbent Jon Husted is running statewide for a full term after being appointed to Ohio’s US Senate seat after JD Vance vacated the post for the vice presidency. Sherrod Brown, a 73-year-old Democrat, is mounting a comeback bid for his old Senate seat. He formerly served in Washington for three decades. The Daily Mail has reported that Brown’s claims that he’s fighting for Ohio farmers appear to be at odds with his support of Joe Biden’s American Rescue Act, and video unearthed by Our News Outlet showed him complaining about ‘black and brown’ people at the US Capitol. The seat is rated to be a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report.

Iowa Senate: Ashley Hinson (R) versus Josh Turek (D)

In Iowa, Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson is on the statewide ballot for the first time, having represented a seat on the eastern side of the state since 2021, after flipping it in 2020. Josh Turek, a state lawmaker, made it out of a bruising primary after getting boosts from major Democrats. One of his biggest backers has been former President Barack Obama, who filmed a basketball-themed ad with Turek, a former Paralympic hooper. Incumbent Senator Joni Ernst chose not to seek re-election for another term in the Hawkeye state. Iowa leans Republican, but Hinson could be negatively impacted by Democrat Rob Sand performing well in the gubernatorial race. The seat is rated ‘lean Republican’ by the Cook Political Report.

Michigan Senate: Mike Rogers (R) versus Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Michigan is one of the true toss-ups in November, as Progressive insurgent Abdul El-Sayed was declared the winner of a rollercoaster Democratic primary for the US Senate after squeaking by with a slim victory over Congresswoman Haley Stevens. His single-point win raises new questions about whether his strength among base voters can translate to a general election this fall, as Democrats look to flip four seats necessary to secure a majority in the upper chamber. El-Sayed fared well with Arab-American and younger voters, while Stevens nabbed support from older Democrats as well as African-American voters who do not seem ready to back El-Sayed in November. Rogers, a former House GOP lawmaker, has been biding his time as the GOP’s presumptive nominee for months, waiting on a challenger to emerge from the Democratic Party. The seat is rated to as a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report.

Texas Senate: Ken Paxton (R) versus James Talarico (D)

Republicans hope to pull out a win by the skin of their teeth in Texas, where the State’s Attorney General Ken Paxton won a bruising GOP primary to face off against James Talarico, a state legislator. Paxton won his primary with Trump’s endorsement, ousting incumbent Senator John Cornyn, and Talarico beat out House Democratic firebrand Jasmine Crockett in his primary. Paxton has to overcome allegations of adultery amid a messy divorce, and a past impeachment from his post before being acquitted by fellow Republicans in the Texas Senate, all ahead of the general election. But he was able to make it out of the primary full of Christian evangelical voters, even with metric tons of personal baggage. Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott is running for a historic fourth consecutive four-year term in the Lone Star State, something that will definitely help drive turnout for Paxton statewide. The seat is rated as ‘lean Republican’ by the Cook Political Report.

Nebraska Senate: Pete Ricketts (R) versus Dan Osborn (I)

Independent Dan Osborn is back on the ballot in the Cornhusker state two years after losing to a Republican statewide in 2024. This time, he’s facing Pete Ricketts, the state’s incumbent GOP Senator and former Governor. Osborn’s campaigning has been marred by several eyebrow-raising moments, including revelations that he has paid himself and family members nearly half a million dollars in campaign funds, and that his daughter participates in NSFW platforms. Ricketts is likely to hold the seat in November, and the seat is rated ‘likely Republican by the Cook Political Report.

Alaska Senate: Dan Sullivan (R) versus Mary Peltola (D)

In the Last Frontier state, incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, who has served as Alaska’s junior Senator since 2015 is facing off against Mary Peltola, a former House lawmaker. During her years in Washington, Peltola was known for her moderate voting record, something Sullivan will most likely have to contend with this year. Alaska has not yet held its primary election, and Dan S Sullivan is in a contest with 15 candidates, including Dan J Sullivan, a retired teacher. Alaska’s use of ranked-choice voting also complicates its elections. The seat is rated to as a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report.

The House of Representatives

Republicans currently have a majority in the US House of Representatives, 218 to 212. The lower chamber currently has four vacancies, three Democrat and one Republican. To gain a majority, Democrats need to flip at least three seats. 

These are the tightest races in the lead-up to November involving missing congressmen, shocking abuse claims, and more.

New Jersey’s 7th District: Rep. Tom Kean Jr (R) versus Rebecca Bennett (D)

Incumbent Republican Congressman Tom Kean Jr of New Jersey missed over 140 consecutive votes earlier this year in an absence he attributed to depression upon his return to Washington. During the hiatus, he was overly cryptic, questioned by both local and national media about his secrecy, and raised doubts about his ability to serve his constituents. In November, Kean faces Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who easily bested a trio of other Democrats for the nomination. The seat is rated as a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report.

Ohio’s 7th District: Rep. Max Miller (R) versus Brian Poindexter (D)

The drama is overflowing in Ohio’s 7th District as domestic ‘abuse’ allegations plague the run of Trump-backed Max Miller, who currently holds the seat. His ex-wife Emily Moreno, the daughter of sitting Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio, has made scathing claims against him involving their two-year-old daughter, which he has denied. However, his standing with voters has taken a steep dive since the physical abuse allegations, first reported by Our News Outlet, came to light. The Cook Political Report rates this seat as a ‘toss up.’

Pennsylvania’s 10th District: Rep. Scott Perry (R) versus Janelle Stelson (D) 

Incumbent Republican Scott Perry is set for a rematch with Janelle Stelson. He beat her by the skin of his teeth in 2024, with 50.5 percent of the vote to his opponent’s 49.3 percent. Despite being in a district that President Donald Trump won by five points, Perry is a member of the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus, raising questions about how good of a match he is for the district. The seat is rated to be a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report.

Virginia’s 2nd District: Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) versus Former Representative Elaine Luria (D)

Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans is set for another face-off with Democrat Elaine Luria, whom she wrestled Virginia’s Second District from in 2022. Luria represented the seat for two terms after winning it in a midterm election in 2018 during the last time Trump was in the White House, ousting Republican Scott Taylor. Both Kiggans and Luria are veterans, having served in the US Navy, and they seek to represent a seat that is home to nearly 90,000 veterans. The seat is rated as a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report.

New York’s 17th District: Mike Lawler (R) versus Cait Conley (D)

A big race to keep an eye on is incumbent Republican Mike Lawler versus veteran Cait Conley in New York. Lawler is under scrutiny for his close friendship with Max Miller, who is facing abuse allegations, and lavish spending on the campaign trail. He also recently admitted that he was ‘arrested for DWI’ in his younger days. The seat is rated ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report. 

Ohio’s 9th District: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) versus Derek Merrin (R) 

Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur is running for her 23rd term in the House this November, facing Republican Derek Merrin. The race is another rematch, and Merrin, a former state lawmaker, lost to Kaptur by 2,383 votes in 2024. Kaptur’s bid is complicated by her recent involvement in a car accident, after which she is undergoing physical rehabilitation. The seat is rated a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report.

Michigan’s 7th District: Rep. Tom Barrett (R) versus William Lawrence (D)

Freshman Republican Tom Barrett has an uphill battle in his first-ever re-election bid this November. He is facing off against William Lawrence, a progressive climate organizer with a 13-year-old felony case related to his activism. During a 2013 protest at an Enbridge Energy pipeline work site, Lawrence chained himself to construction equipment and refused to leave. He was charged with resisting and obstructing police, which is a felony, and the conviction was later expunged. The seat is rated to be a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report.

Iowa’s 1st District: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) versus Christina Bohannan (D)

Incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks is no stranger to tough elections. After winning her first federal race in 2020 by 6 votes, Miller-Meeks, like Kiggans, has had a tough job of keeping both her base happy but still working to satisfy independent voters. This time around, she is facing Christina Bohannan, a lawyer, engineer, and former State Representative. Miller-Meeks, like Hinson, could be hurt by a strong turnout for Democrat Rob Sand in the race for governor if his supporters vote the whole ballot. The seat is rated as a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report.

Texas’ 34th District: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) versus Eric Flores (R)

Incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez is facing Republican Eric Flores in a redrawn seat this November. The district has trended towards the GOP in recent years, and Flores believes that voters don’t understand Democratic opposition to Trump’s immigration policies in a heavily Hispanic region. Gonzalez, meanwhile, has characterized Trump’s approach as ‘America Last.’ The seat is rated to be a ‘toss up’ by the Cook Political Report.

Nebraska’s 2nd District: Denise Powell (D) versus Brinker Harding (R) 

Republican Congressman and retired US Air Force Brigadier General Don Bacon chose not to seek re-election in 2026, after winning his 2024 race for the GOP despite Kamala Harris winning his district by five points and its electoral vote. That leaves one of the most vulnerable GOP House seats in the country open with no incumbent. Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Councilman, faces off against Denise Powell, a mom and small business owner in November for Bacon’s seat. The seat is rated as ‘lean Democrat‘ by the Cook Political Report.

California’s 22nd District: Rep. David Valadao (R) versus Randy Villegas (D) 

Incumbent Republican David Valadao has maintained an independent streak throughout his six terms in the US House of Representatives. If reelected, he would be the only GOP member of the House still standing in the second half of Trump’s second term, despite having voted to impeach him in 2021. In November, Valadao faces Randy Villegas, an educator and activist. The seat is rated a Toss-Up by the Cook Political Report.