Labour found itself on the brink of internal conflict last night following the unveiling of a potential path for Andy Burnham to vie for Keir Starmer’s position.

Yesterday, Andrew Gwynne, a former minister who has faced controversy, put an end to months of rumors by announcing his decision to vacate his Greater Manchester seat. This move potentially paves the way for Burnham’s return to Parliament, setting the stage for a possible leadership challenge.

This development provoked a heated reaction from supporters of the Prime Minister, who cautioned that the ensuing by-election could devolve into a chaotic spectacle.

The situation momentarily caused a stir in the financial markets amid concerns that a leadership battle might unsettle the current government and push Labour further to the political Left.

However, it remained uncertain last night whether the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, would actually decide to run.

Dubbed the ‘King of the North,’ Burnham refrained from confirming his candidacy, advising against jumping to conclusions, as speculation grew in anticipation of Gwynne’s official resignation announcement.

Nevertheless, the PM’s allies were lining up to try to scupper his chances.

And election experts pointed out that the once-safe red seat has become a three-way marginal with Reform – who vowed to throw everything at it – and the Greens.

Labour was descending into civil war last night as Andy Burnham was offered a route map towards replacing Keir Starmer

The Mayor of Greater Manchester could launch a leadership bid to oust the Labour leader 

Shamed Labour MP Andrew Gwynne is leaving the Commons on medical grounds, which will trigger a by-election in his Gorton and Denton constituency

Sir Keir’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney is already weighing up whether to use the PM’s majority on Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) to block Mr Burnham as a candidate.

Some allies have even urged the party to impose an all-women shortlist to keep him out. The PM yesterday refused to say whether he would support Mr Burnham’s candidacy. Union leaders critical of Sir Keir’s leadership warned against any attempt to ‘stitch up’ the nomination.

Fire Brigades Union chief Steve Wright said it would be ‘a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked from seeking selection as Labour’s by-election candidate in this seat’.

Mr Wright, whose union has a seat on the NEC, said he would ‘not stand by and allow senior Labour politicians like Andy to be carved out of this process’.

Mr Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017, is the favourite to replace Sir Keir among Labour Party members. But he can only challenge the leadership if he has a seat in Parliament.

The MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017, Mr Burnham has stood for leadership on two occasions and has made little secret of his ambition to replace Sir Keir, leading to a cold shoulder from many at last year’s party conference.

He refused to say yesterday whether he will seek to stand in Mr Gwynne’s Gorton and Denton constituency, claiming he had been ‘in the dark’ about his colleague’s intentions.

But his allies told The Mail on Sunday last month he was poised to secure a deal to fight a by-election to return to the Commons.

Mr Gwynne was suspended by Labour last year after The Mail on Sunday uncovered a series of offensive WhatsApp messages he had sent, including one in which he said he hoped for the death of an elderly constituent who complained about bin collections.

He is reported to have cut a deal to retire on health grounds in return for assurances about his MP’s pension. Commons sources suggested the deal would see Mr Gwynne – who is only 51 – paid up until pension age, at which point he would receive a full Parliamentary pension. That package could be worth around £1million, according to one insider.

The ten-year bond yield rose minutes after reports emerged that Mr Gwynne was standing down. Yields on government bonds are small parcels of debt that are traded on financial markets. A sharp rise in yields is often a sign of concern among investors.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s allies have reportedly launched a campaign to stop Andy Burnham from returning to parliament

The departure raises the prospect of a nightmare by-election for Labour.

On paper, the constituency is a safe Labour seat, with Mr Gwynne winning in 2024 with a majority of more than 13,000. But recent polls suggest the seat could fall to Reform UK or even the Greens.

Nigel Farage yesterday said Reform would throw everything at a contest, in a region where it is growing in strength. 

He told the Daily Mail: ‘This by-election is by no means a certainty for Labour, the Left-wing Greens will split their vote and we will be the challenger. We will give it our all.’ 

Asked about the possibility of a leadership challenge, the Prime Minister last night told Channel 4 News: ‘My message is to my entire party, and that is that every minute we waste talking about anything other than the cost of living and stability in Europe and across the globe is a wasted minute.’

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said Mr Burnham’s local popularity posed a dilemma for Sir Keir, adding: ‘If Andy Burnham is not the candidate, particularly if he is stopped by Labour, and Labour then lose, Keir Starmer is going to get the blame.

‘If Burnham fights the by-election he will be putting his alleged popularity and ability to turn around Labour’s fortunes to the test. If he loses, that’s the end, but if he wins that could raise questions for the PM.’ 

There were rumours that Mancunian Green Party leader Zack Polanski could throw his hat in the ring in a bid to win a seat at Westminster. Tory sources also confirmed they would stand a candidate.

Labour’s rules mean Mr Burnham would have to quit as mayor in order to fight the seat, triggering a contest to replace him which the party could lose to Reform.

Board that could block Burnham

By Sam Merriman 

For the general public the Labour Party’s governing body appears to be an arcane and bureaucratic institution that has little bearing on their lives.

But Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) will now have to make a decision that could have serious implications for the next General Election – and for Sir Keir Starmer’s political future.

For Andy Burnham to run in the by-election triggered by Andrew Gwynne’s standing down, and then potentially bid for the party leadership, he has to first get past the 44-strong board.

Many of those on it are not household names. One former member, however, was Sir Tony Robinson – best known as TV’s Baldrick, a man with a ‘cunning plan,’ which Mr Burnham could surely make use of now.

The NEC’s current chair is Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, who is loyal to the Prime Minister but is said to harbour her own leadership ambitions.

Mr Burnham was the MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017. He has stood for leader on two occasions and has made little secret of his ambition to replace Sir Keir

There were rumours that Mancunian Green Party leader Zack Polanski could join a contest for the Greater Manchester seat

Other MPs on the body include Ellie Reeves, the Solicitor General and sister of the Chancellor, as well as centrist MPs Luke Akehurst and Gurinder Singh Josan.

Another on the panel is Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds. He has been loyal to Sir Keir but his position is less straightforward – he is a Greater Manchester MP, said to be an unwilling Whip and his wife was recently shunted sideways out of a powerful role in Downing Street.

Then there is Sir Keir’s bete noire Lucy Powell – a key ally of Mr Burnham, who was sacked from her Cabinet role by the Prime Minister last year before successfully running as deputy Labour leader.

Outside of the frontbenchers, the rest of the NEC is comprised of unions representatives, members of the Constituency and Parliamentary Labour parties and local councillors.

The trade unions – who have 13 representatives on the ruling body – will be important and could offer Mr Burnham a route if he can persuade them to back him, given grumblings from within about Sir Keir.

Ultimately, the decision to block the Manchester Mayor or not probably rests with the Prime Minister and his closest advisers.

Any blatant attempt to block Mr Burnham would carry its own risks, likely provoking a damaging public row that could damage the Prime Minister further.