Anthony Albanese is poised to surpass Paul Keating’s tenure as Prime Minister, securing his place as the 11th longest-serving leader in Australia’s history.

This achievement will also position Albanese as the fourth longest-serving Labor Prime Minister, further solidifying his status among Australia’s political elite.

As Albanese is set to exceed Keating’s four years and 82 days in office by August 13, the focus in Canberra is increasingly turning to the future, particularly regarding potential successors when the Prime Minister eventually steps down.

Should Albanese complete his full term without calling an early election, he is on course to become the second longest-serving Labor Prime Minister, trailing only Bob Hawke.

At the pinnacle of longevity in office is Sir Robert Menzies, who led Australia for an unprecedented 18 years, with John Howard following closely behind, having spent nearly 12 years in residence at The Lodge.

Speculation about the post-Albanese era intensified this week after Health Minister Mark Butler, during an interview with Sky News’s Andrew Clennell, did not rule out the possibility of seeking leadership in the future.

Clennell asked Butler directly whether he harboured ambitions to replace Albanese as Labor leader and prime minister.

Butler moved swiftly to publicly back the Prime Minister.

If Albanese avoids an early election and serves out his full term, he is on track to become the second longest‑serving Labor prime minister, behind only Bob Hawke 

Albanese is on track to overtake Paul Keating’s tenure as prime minister

‘Anthony was only re‑elected less than 12 months ago with a huge majority. He’s got a very big agenda,’ he said.

‘He’s steering the country through probably the worst global fuel crisis we’ve experienced, if not ever, then certainly for 50 years. He’s not going anywhere.’

The Health Minister said it was a privilege to serve under Albanese.

‘I’ve supported Anthony probably more closely and more consistently than anyone else in the caucus. I don’t want him to go anywhere. I feel privileged to be able to serve under him,’ Butler said.

However, when pressed further, he stopped short of issuing a categorical denial.

‘It’s just not something we’re thinking about,’ Butler replied.

‘Anthony said last week he’s enjoying the job. It’s a hard job. But right across Government, we want him to stay in it for the long term. Certainly I do.’

Both Albanese and Butler hail from Labor’s dominant Left faction, which holds a slim numerical edge over the Right inside the parliamentary party.

Mark Butler (pictured) did not deny that he was interested in leading Labor when asked 

Butler is widely regarded as the most senior Left figure in government outside the Prime Minister himself.

Despite the fine factional balance, Albanese continues to wield significant personal authority, with Daily Mail understanding he has personally intervened in a number of major policy and strategic decisions.

Inside Labor, Albanese is widely credited as the leader who dragged the party out of political wilderness following years of electoral disappointment. 

Before his victory, Labor had won just two of the previous nine federal elections, a record frequently cited by MPs as justification for Albanese’s firm grip on the leadership.

That history continues to shape internal calculations.

Daily Mail understands there is little appetite within the Right faction for another Left leader, unless they possess the same overwhelming electoral mandate and authority enjoyed by Albanese.

On the Right, Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles are both widely seen as potential leadership contenders should Albanese eventually retire.

Marles, however, is viewed as a less likely successor, with a number of Labor MPs furious over his internal manoeuvring to install Hawke MP Sam Rae as a minister, a move that ultimately saw popular Victorian MP Mark Dreyfus dumped from Cabinet as attorney‑general under caucus and factional proportionality rules. 

Richard Marles (pictured) is among a number of possible right contenders for party leader

Chalmers is also understood to have been quietly working the caucus, with the Treasurer actively courting support among Labor MPs by regularly turning up at backbench fundraisers and party events, as well as through other behind‑the‑scenes efforts to build goodwill. 

History may also count against Butler, with no major party prime minister ever hailing from South Australia, largely due to the state’s smaller number of lower‑house seats, a factor that diminishes its clout in caucus and leadership contests.