Traders move across the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on July 30, 2026, in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
Hello from Singapore — Anniek Bao here, bringing you the latest edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.
The Dow has climbed to its fifth consecutive record close, with investors increasingly betting that the five-month conflict in the Middle East may be nearing an end.
Still, the details matter: a deal that gives Tehran greater authority over the strait would not be the outcome Washington originally sought.
In the artificial intelligence trade, meanwhile, loyalty may be proving just as important as quarterly performance. AMD delivered strong results, yet its stock fell after Elon Musk said SpaceX would rely exclusively on Nvidia chips to build out its AI infrastructure.
What you need to know today
U.S. stock futures edged higher after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a fresh record and extended its winning streak to five sessions. The broader S&P 500, however, retreated and ended a four-day rally, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dipped by less than 1%.
Driving the rally in blue-chip stocks were growing indications that Iran and Oman are close to finalizing a commercial shipping agreement for the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed deal would grant Tehran greater control over ships moving through the critical oil transit route, Reuters reported.
President Donald Trump said a U.S. deal to reopen the strait “could happen” as soon as Wednesday or Thursday, extending a deadline Treasury Scott Bessent had floated just a day earlier, when he said an agreement could land Tuesday or Wednesday.
Both Brent and WTI crude futures slipped as the administration’s optimism spread through markets.
The Fed’s hawk watch
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she’s “prepared to act” on a rate hike: “Inflation is too high, and I consider the risks to the inflation side of the dual mandate higher than the risks to the employment side at this point,” she said in Anchorage, Alaska.
With five years of above-target inflation, she said, the risk grows that higher inflation becomes entrenched. Traders are now pricing in a 55% chance of a rate hike in the central bank’s September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
SpaceX’s AI spending gets audited
SpaceX shares sank 13.6% after a surge in AI spending rattled investors and clouded an otherwise expectation-beating quarter. Capital expenditures jumped sixfold to $18.4 billion, with the majority going toward AI. Musk tried to allay fears, saying SpaceX would hit $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, a year earlier than previously forecast.
AI buildout allegiance
Musk’s pledge that SpaceX would only use Nvidia processors for its AI infrastructure sent the chipmaker’s shares up more than 3%. “We’re exclusive to Nvidia,” he said.
AMD was on the other side of that trade. CEO Lisa Su brushed off the snub — “I have tremendous respect for Elon… we look forward to continuing to partner over the longer term” — but AMD’s stock closed 7% lower despite strong second-quarter earnings and guidance for data center growth “well over 100%.”
In AI’s C-suites
Meta is rolling out Muse Code, its first coding agent, as it tries to challenge Anthropic and OpenAI — differentiating by price rather than capabilities, per AI chief Alexandr Wang.
And at Google, a changing of the guard: chief scientist Jeff Dean is leaving after 27 years to start his own company, while DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis moves to a chairman role. Alphabet shares fell about 4% — the shake-up landing just as Google turned cash flow negative for the first time on record, with full-year capex forecast at up to $205 billion.
A leftward turn in Michigan
Progressive Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary — one of the most closely watched races of the midterms, with the two trading blows over AI data centers and U.S. foreign policy. He faces Mike Rogers in November for a seat both parties consider must-win.
— Anniek Bao
And finally…
Michael Burry bets against rally: ‘We are near a major top, and possible a 1987-type fall’
Michael Burry of “The Big Short” fame is sticking with his bearish wagers even as the S&P 500 surges to a record high, warning that the rally could still end in a sharp sell-off reminiscent of the 1987 stock-market crash.
“I continue to believe it is possible we are near a major top, and possible a 1987-type fall, but the S&P 500 making new highs likely will bring new money into the market,” Burry said in a Tuesday Substack post.
Burry has been among Wall Street’s most outspoken skeptics of the artificial intelligence boom, arguing that demand for AI infrastructure is being fueled by financing arrangements that may prove unsustainable. He said the market’s advance is creating a self-reinforcing cycle, with declining volatility encouraging systematic investors to increase exposure.
— Yun Li
