Donald Trump hailed what he called a “total and complete victory” following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran on Wednesday. This development came shortly after Trump issued a dire warning about the potential loss of an entire civilization.

The President dialed back previous threats to capture the nation “in one night,” expressing satisfaction with the military campaign’s outcomes, lauding it as an unqualified triumph both militarily and otherwise.

However, six weeks after the US and Israel jointly launched strikes on Iran, resulting in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian regime remains standing.

Global oil prices have surged significantly, the United States’ ties with NATO allies have suffered, and a staunchly hardline Supreme Leader continues to lead in Tehran. Furthermore, despite assertions that Iran’s military has been obliterated, it remains active and operational.

Efforts for peace during talks in Pakistan on Saturday fell through, with both parties blaming each other for the stalemate, citing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Tehran proclaimed a “victory in the field,” suggesting this would be reinforced in political dialogues, yet accused the US of failing to earn its trust during 21 hours of discussions in Islamabad. Meanwhile, JD Vance noted that Iran was unwilling to cease its nuclear weapons production.

Republicans now fear they will pay at the midterms as the US remains embroiled in a foreign conflict that Mr Trump promised he would avoid.

The Islamic Republic and its axis of resistance lives on despite emerging battered and bruised, with much of its top brass eliminated.

Its closure of the Strait of Hormuz has wreaked havoc worldwide and its furious retaliation on its Middle Eastern neighbours has shocked the US and shattered any illusion of the Gulf’s stability.

After the first strikes on Tehran on February 28, Mr Trump told Iranians: ‘When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.’

Yet on Monday he praised Iran’s new leaders as ‘smarter, sharper, far less radical’ before laying into the UK and other allies.

As the two-week ceasefire begins, what has he achieved? 

Assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 

The US-Israeli surprise daylight attack on Tehran that took out Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was the culmination of decades of intelligence gathering which penetrated the heart of the regime.

Mossad operatives were said to have hacked into the city’s traffic camera network to spy on the 86-year-old Ayatollah, his bodyguards and other top Iranian officials for years before his assassination.

The supreme leader’s body was found in rubble in his compound. It marked the end of a brutal 36-year reign which saw the tyrant slaughter thousands of his own citizens, repress women and fund terrorist proxies.

Many hoped the killing of Khamenei, who held an iron grip over Iran since replacing the Islamic Republic’s first leader Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, would spell the end of the regime.

But as the world marvelled at the US and Israel’s military achievement, a high point in their war, Iran was weighing up a swift replacement.

Khamenei, opposed to the hereditary rule perpetuated by the Shah monarchy, never wanted his son Mojtaba to take power. 

But with most of the regime’s top generals taken out, the 56-year-old was appointed as his replacement by the Assembly of Experts.

Mojtaba, a hardline cleric viewed as being even more of an extremist than his father, was installed by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

He has not been seen, pictured, heard from or recorded since being made Supreme Leader on March 8 after narrowly surviving the strikes on his father’s compound which also killed his wife, Zahra Haddad-Adel, and his teenage son, Mohammad Bagher. 

Instead he has purportedly issued a number of written statements, ranging from threats to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut to letters of condolences for slain IRGC generals.

Mojtaba’s invisibility has led to mounting speculation that he is not in control of the country or even alive.

Iranian state TV admitted he was wounded in the war with some reports saying he has lost a leg and remains in a coma. Some claimed he fled the country for medical treatment, possibly to Russia.

The latest intelligence assessments suggest he is in Qom, a holy city located 87 miles south of Tehran.

Mojtaba has close links with the bloodthirsty IRGC, which massacred thousands of citizens during anti-government protests in January.

Mr Trump initially branded his appointment ‘unacceptable’ but now appears to have softened his approach. 

On Monday he said: ‘We’re dealing with a much different regime than before; we’re dealing with different people. They’re smarter, they’re sharper, far less radical. We have regime change.’

But others are more sceptical.  

‘Having Mojtaba take over is the same playbook,’ said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. 

He added: ‘It’s a big humiliation for the United States to carry out an operation of this scale, risk so much, and end up killing an 86-year-old man, only to have him replaced by his hardline son.’   

Regime unchanged despite promises

The US President has repeatedly alluded to regime change as his key war objective.

He urged Iranians to rise up against the government and was backed by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who told the population they would ‘create conditions that will allow you to take your destiny into your own hands’.

For weeks Mr Trump has boasted that regime change has already been achieved.

‘The one regime was decimated, destroyed, they’re all dead. The next regime is mostly dead,’ he said last month, adding that the new leadership is ‘much less radicalised’ and more ‘rational’.

But last Sunday he called the administration ‘crazy b***ards’ for their refusal to open the Strait of Hormuz. 

While the regime has been bloodied, it has been emboldened by its successful attempts to cripple the global economy by shutting the crucial passageway.

The strait, through which 20 per cent of global oil flows, has been a sticking point for Mr Trump and has showed that Iran can go on the offensive despite the battering it has taken. 

And while many key commanders have been killed, the IRGC has delegated authority to local leaders with their own weapons – allowing them to act independently and continue fighting.

The economic lever of the strait has allowed Iran to claim victory as it asserts ‘dominion’ over the waterway, even if its axis of resistance has never been weaker. 

Although Hezbollah and Hamas have been largely diminished, the Houthis in Yemen could still close the Bab el-Mandeb waterway, another crucial passage for global oil which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

Tehran has also surprised the US with its series of missile and drone attacks on neighbours in the Middle East.

Israel, the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain have all been pounded by Iranian bombs and their Shahed 136 drones, which cost less than £3,000 to produce.

As a ceasefire takes hold, the chance of a true regime change appears over.

Widespread protests have not taken place months after nationwide demonstrations were so brutally cracked down on and initial rumours of an Iraqi-Kurdish backed ground invasion have not materialised.

Mr Trump said the US sent ‘a lot’ of weapons to arm internal protesters but claimed the Kurds ‘took them’. 

A ceasefire will provide short-term relief for much of Iran’s besieged population, but in the long run there will be disappointment that the regime wasn’t toppled, according to Khashayar Joneidi of BBC Persian.

He said: ‘When the war began many were anticipating a regime change. Now the regime is still there, it hasn’t changed. 

‘They have to face a regime which has become more angry, it is bleeding and it has business to finish with the people.

‘Many people are saying “why did we have to go through all this horror the war, the destruction, the nightly bombings and still have to deal with the same people in the same place, while the president argues that the regime has changed”.’ 

NATO torn apart in victory for Russia and China

Mr Trump has persistently lashed out at NATO allies for their refusal to unconditionally support his war aims in Iran.

It has plunged the relationship to its lowest point since the alliance was formed in 1949. 

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has built a warm relationship with Mr Trump despite the tensions and last year referred to him as a ‘daddy’ handling a schoolyard brawl between Israel and Iran. 

But it has done little to satisfy the President, who called the alliance a ‘paper tiger’ and said he was considering leaving it after member nations failed to send reinforcements to the Strait of Hormuz.

On March 20 he wrote: ‘They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices.

‘So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER!’

A week later, on March 27, he told a crowd in Miami he was done with NATO allies.

‘We would have always been there for them, but now, based on their actions, I guess we don’t have to be, do we?’ he said.

On April 1 he said: ‘I’ll be discussing my disgust with NATO.’

Asked if he was thinking about pulling out of NATO, he said: ‘Oh, absolutely without question. Wouldn’t you do that if you were me?’

He also said Vladimir Putin ‘knows’ the alliance is ineffectual in comments which will be seen as a huge victory for Moscow and Beijing. 

‘This is a dangerous point for the transatlantic alliance,’ said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesman now at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think-tank. 

Mr Trump said his anger with NATO started with its refusal to hand over Greenland. 

He also lashed out at other allies who he accused of failing to pull their weight, naming Japan, South Korea and Australia.

But he reserved his strongest criticism for the UK and Sir Keir Starmer. 

He said the Prime Minister was ‘no Churchill’ and mocked his offer to send ‘two broken-down aircraft carriers’ to the Middle East. 

At a White House lunch last Wednesday, the US President put on a weak-sounding voice as he mimicked Sir Keir saying he couldn’t send UK forces to the Middle East. 

Mr Trump has admitted he was ‘disappointed’, ‘not happy’ and ‘very surprised’ with Britain’s response to the war, with critics claiming his relationship with Sir Keir has been ‘irreparably’ damaged.

The US President said he was most impressed with his Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain.

But they have been shocked by the way Iran has dragged them into the war.

Iranian missiles have targeted US military sites, energy plants and civilian infrastructure including banks. 

Thousands of expats have fled Dubai and other Gulf countries as missiles rained down on hotels and landmarks, destroying their previous sense of stability.  

Western energy bills soar with Republicans expected to pay in midterms

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has seen energy prices spike worldwide as fears grow of a global economic crisis. 

The passageway, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil flows daily, had been shut to vessels since February 28 before the ceasefire was agreed.

In the UK, there are concerns of a similar cost-of-living crisis to the one felt in 2022 after Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, while in America the Republicans are expected to pay at the polls in November’s midterm elections.

The situation is ‘more serious than the ones in 1973, 1979 and 2022 together’, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.

‘The world has never experienced a disruption to energy supply of such magnitude,’ he told French newspaper Le Figaro.

He added that European countries, as well as Japan, Australia and others will suffer, but those most at risk were developing nations which will be hit by higher oil and gas prices, increased food prices and a general acceleration of inflation. 

Since Iran began its blockade of the strait, the cost of a litre of diesel in the UK has headed towards the £2 mark. 

While household energy bills are expected to soar by £288 a year from July.

European and Asian refiners were paying ‌record high prices of near $150 a barrel for crude oil on Tuesday.

Prices have spiked because the war has affected production and transportation in the Persian Gulf.

Much of that oil exits the gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to reach customers around the world, but Iran has blocked it to enemies.

The worry on markets has been that a long-term disruption will keep oil prices high for a long time and send a painful wave of inflation crashing through the global economy.

Inflation is spiralling in the US with prices jumping by almost one per cent last month, pushing the yearly inflation rate up to 3.3 percent, its highest level in two years. 

Data from AAA shows the national average US gasoline price surpassed $4 a gallon last month, for the first time in four years. 

Even before the war, inflation was spiking because of the Trump administration’s tariffs and strong consumer demand.   

Prominent Republicans admit that rising prices are causing concern with the midterm elections taking place in November.

‘The price of gas is always kind of a benchmark,’ Senate Majority Leader John Thune said on Capitol Hill Monday. 

‘I do think the fact that we’ve increased our supply here domestically will help ease it, but it’s something obviously we’ve got to pay attention to. And hopefully the operations in Iran won’t be an extended situation.’

Trump previously told lawmakers the war was a ‘short-term excursion’, adding oil prices were ‘artificially up’.

He said: ‘They have gone up probably less than I thought they would go up. But I don’t think anybody thought we were going to be this quickly successful.’

On Wednesday, Mr Trump claimed the US and Iran are launching a ‘joint venture’ in the Strait of Hormuz.

The exact terms have not been agreed but Iran wants to charge tolls of up to $1million on ships that transit the waterway during the two-week period, an unnamed Middle East official told the Associated Press.

Trump welcomed the idea on Wednesday, telling ABC: ‘We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it – also securing it from lots of other people.

‘It’s a beautiful thing.’

The Strait has now become known as the ‘Tehran Tollbooth’, according to Bloomberg. 

Destroying Iran’s military capabilities and proxies 

While the US has failed to topple the Iranian regime, a secondary objective was the obliteration of the country’s military and navy.

Washington had hit more than 12,300 targets as of April 1, according to its central command. 

Mr Trump has alleged that Iran’s radar equipment is ‘100 per cent annihilated’ and that it has no anti-aircraft kit left.

He also said its navy has been completely destroyed, with central command claiming the US has damaged more than 155 vessels.

‘Iran’s navy is gone,’ the President said. ‘Their air force is in ruins. Their leaders, most of them, the terrorist regime they led, are now dead. Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks.’ 

Despite Mr Trump’s claims, Iran’s navy has managed to maintain a block on the Strait of Hormuz, escorting certain vessels through.

And while he claimed its air defences have been wiped out, Iran continues to send salvos at US allies in the Middle East.

His comments that ‘there’s nobody even shooting at us’ came two days before a US F-15E fighter jet and an A-10 ground attack aircraft were downed.

The US military was forced to complete one of the most daring rescue operations in its history to save two troops who were stranded in Iranian territory.

The President described an all-hands-on-deck operation that involved 155 aircraft – including 64 fighter jets, 48 refueling tankers, 13 rescue planes and three helicopters.

Mr Trump lauded ‘a breathtaking show of skill and precision, lethality and force’ as US forces swooped into mountainous terrain in southern Iran to rescue the weapons systems officer whose F-15E went down on Good Friday.

‘He scaled cliff faces, bleeding rather profusely, contacted his platoon, treated his own wounds and contacted American forces,’ Trump said of the officer, who was rescued on Easter Sunday.

The American President said he would ‘ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon’ at the beginning of the conflict.

And US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard last month said they had ‘high confidence’ about the location of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium stockpiles. 

But intelligence agencies did not believe Iran has the capability to build a nuclear bomb, even before the latest war. 

Tehran’s proxy network has also been weakened in the latest conflict, with Hezbollah under attack by Israel.

The terror group, based in Lebanon, launched missiles into Israel in retaliation for the killing of Ali Khamenei. 

It drew fury from the Lebanese government, who ordered the group to give up its weapons after it dragged the country into war.

Hezbollah’s Beirut stronghold of Dahieh has faced constant bombardment while Israeli troops have launched an invasion, to create what it calls a security buffer zone and to destroy the terror group’s infrastructure and fighters.

Hamas has already been weakened by its war with Israel, while the Houthis appear the strongest, sending missiles into Israel and claiming control over Red Sea shipping with the Bab el-Mandeb strait.