Australia Election Results: How Did the Gaza Protest Vote Turn Out?

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Political action groups that aimed to dislodge Labor ministers and politicians in traditional strongholds due to a perceived lack of action concerning Gaza claim they achieved “extremely positive results” in the federal election, even though no seats have been overturned in parliament yet.

Many , disenchanted with the party’s position on the conflict.

Discontent with the government’s stance on Gaza also surfaced on the campaign trail: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese faced heckling from another candidate, Emanie Darwiche, who stood as the NSW Senate candidate for the Australia’s Voice party, led by former Labor senator Fatima Payman.

Reacting to community dissatisfaction, pro-Palestinian action groups and The Muslim Vote organized efforts in key Labor heartland seats to bolster candidates who resonated with their values, such as Greens and independent candidates across 32 seats.

How did pro-Palestinian candidates fare at the election?

Neither of the two main independent candidates in western Sydney were elected.

Ahmed Ouf, an Egyptian-born pharmacist, ran against Labor minister Jason Clare in Blaxland, which the Labor MP has held since 2007.

He drew just over 20 per cent of the primary vote, with 14,867 votes against Clare’s 46.45 per cent of the primary and 33,680 votes.

In Watson, Egyptian-born physician Dr Ziad Basyouny won 15 per cent of the vote with 10,799 votes against Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke’s 49 per cent and 34,351 votes.

Ahmed Ouf, independent candidate for Blaxland, lost to Education Minister Jason Clare. Source: AAP / Dominic Giannini

However, Ghaith Krayem, spokesperson for Muslim Votes Matter said the organisation was happy with the outcome.

“We saw extremely positive results,” he told SBS News.

In the north Melbourne seat of Wills, Labor’s Peter Khalil is ahead of the Greens’ Samantha Ratnam by a small margin as of Sunday.

Krayem said the 8 per cent swing against Khalil was driven by Muslim community mobilisation.

A man in dark scrubs standing in front of a tree

Independent candidate for Watson Dr Ziad Basyouny lost to Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke. Source: AAP / Dan Himbrechts

While Muslim Votes Matter-backed independents could not pull ahead of Labor incumbents in western Sydney, Krayem says the first-time candidates drew significant primary vote results.

Krayem said Ouf and Basyouny did “extremely well” for first-time candidates.

“They have set a fantastic foundation to continue a challenge in south-west Sydney. At the end of the day, those margins are probably going to get reduced by seven, eight per cent.

“That’s a really good outcome for a first-time independent to run in a federal election,” he said.

A man in a dark suit with a white shirt and pink tie

Education Minister Jason Clare said Gaza is a personal issue for many voters in his electorate of Blaxland. Source: AAP / Mick Tsikas

Accent Research principal Shaun Ratcliff told SBS News that while the ‘Gaza vote’ drove some support for some independents in western Sydney seats held by Labor, “it just wasn’t enough to change the outcome”.

However, western Sydney GP Jamal Rifi, a prominent figure in Watson’s Lebanese community and active supporter of Burke, said Burke and Clare’s victories reflect the “political intelligence” of the Muslim community who believe the members of the Labor government will provide more effective representation.

Rifi started the ‘Friends of Tony Burke’ campaign to re-elect the Labor MP.

A man in a suit shakes hands with a person in a red t-shirt in front of a crowd of other people wearing red t-shirts

Minister for Home Affairs of Australia Tony Burke was re-elected in Watson in Sydney’s south-west. Source: SBS News / Rayane Tamer

“The community and Gaza’s best interest is for our friend Tony Burke, who has proved over the years that he is on the side of our community, is to put him back into the decision-making corridors, so he can continue to reflect our voice, our aspirations and our interest where it matters,” he told SBS News.

Rifi said the Albanese government has acted consistently in the interests of Palestinians in Gaza, including providing humanitarian aid and voting at the United Nations demanding an end to Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories.

“There has been a concerted campaign to never, ever highlight the positive aspects of what they’ve done but always highlight what they haven’t done,” he said.

A man in a dark suit blue with a light shirt and a dark blue tie

Dr Jamal Rifi launched the Friends of Tony Burke campaign. Source: AAP / Joel Carratt

What about the Greens?

Ratcliff said the Greens’ national result may have been driven in part by the party’s firm stance on Gaza.

The Greens lost two seats in Brisbane, previously held by Max Chandler-Mather and Stephen Bates, while Adam Bandt is currently holding onto his Melbourne seat by a slim margin, after a 5 per cent swing to Labor.

The minor party had pledged to continue calls for an end to the occupation of Palestinian territories and urged Israel to halt what they describe as an ongoing genocide — an accusation rejected by the state of Israel.

Ratcliff said it’s possible this stance may have been a drag on the Greens vote in some inner city seats in Melbourne.

“The Greens definitely have gone backwards in some parts of inner city Melbourne and that is probably part of [the reason]. I’m not saying that’s the only cause, but it might be a contributing factor,” he said.

Redbridge Group director Simon Welsh said that for older, progressive voters, the Greens’ stance on Gaza “strayed into being seen as politicising an issue they thought shouldn’t be dealt with in that way”.

“There was this sense of wanting social cohesion around this issue, so that both Muslim and Jewish communities would feel safe in this country. So, anything that had that sniff of one-sidedness was certainly problematic.”

Federal parliament’s first Palestinian elected

Labor’s Basem Abdo will be the first Australian of Palestinian heritage elected to parliament after securing 31 per cent of the vote in the seat of Calwell in Melbourne’s north.

Welsh attributes some of this result to the mobilisation of the Muslim community in the electorate.

While Krayem said it is “fantastic” to see a Palestinian in federal parliament, it is unlikely Labor will allow Abdo to speak on Palestinian issues outside party lines.

“Hopefully the overall result from our perspective will put pressure on the ALP to change that position,” he said.

What happens now?

Krayem said Muslim Votes Matter considers the federal election a “stepping stone” and it will continue its advocacy and lobbying work into the next term of government.

He also believes the relative success of some candidates supported by the group will cause the Albanese government to pay attention to calls from the Muslim community.

“Despite the landslide victory to the Labor Party, those behind the scenes at the party will look at those areas where we have mobilised and they will know that they have to take this community much more seriously in the future,” he said.

Considering the support that was seen on Saturday, Welsh said Muslim Votes Matter may be able to build on this to see more successful outcomes for the next election — but he said their capacity to do so remains a “question mark”.

“That’s going to depend on resources and party organising. If they’ve got the capacity to build on the ground team and the campaign organisation that they’ve built this time around, they could have another crack.”

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