Before the recent attack, officials had set Australia’s national terror alert to “probable,” signifying a 50-50 likelihood of a terrorist incident occurring within the country.

But what exactly does “probable” entail for Australia?

To clarify, this threat level had remained unchanged for over eight years before it was lowered in November 2022. At that time, government representatives emphasized that a reduced threat level did not equate to the complete elimination of the risk of terrorism.

The national terrorism threat level serves as a critical warning mechanism, offering both the government and the public insight into what the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) is currently observing and expecting in terms of potential threats.

In the aftermath of the attack, ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess asserted that the threat level would likely remain at “probable,” indicating no immediate change despite the recent events.

Will the terrorism threat level change?

In the hours after the attack, Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) Director-General Mike Burgess maintained the threat level would likely not change from “probable”.

“I don’t see that changing at this stage,” he said.

“One incident by itself does not necessarily raise the threat level at the national level, but we keep that under constant review.

Burgess confirmed investigations are ongoing into any other possible threats, after father and son Sajid and Naveed Akram were named as the shooters.

“We’re looking to see if there’s anyone in the community that has similar intent,” he said.

“It’s important to stress at this point, we have no indications to that fact, but that is something we have active investigations on.”