Anthony Albanese, Jim Chalmers and Tu Le.
Share this @internewscast.com
Labor is in a position it would scarcely have believed four months ago, with just about every opinion poll suggesting it is in prime position to be re-elected tonight at the federal election.
While the government could lose some seats to the Coalition, there are others it has a genuine chance of picking up to help cement a second term, particularly with polling pointing towards a slight two-party preferred swing towards Anthony Albanese and the government.
Chief among them is Menzies. The suburban seat in Melbourne’s north-west is currently held by Liberal Keith Wolahan, but redistribution has made it a notionally Labor seat, albeit on a very slender 0.42 per cent margin.
Anthony Albanese, Jim Chalmers and Tu Le.
Recent opinion polling has indicated Labor is on track to be re-elected. (Nine)

With the Coalition targeting the outer suburbs as its most likely path to victory, snatching one of those seats off the opposition would be a major boost to Labor’s hopes of re-election.

Similarly, neighbouring Deakin is the tightest seat in the country heading into the election. It’s currently in the hands of shadow housing minister Michael Sukkar, who suffered a 4.5 per cent swing against him in 2022. 

Anything close to a repeat would spell disaster for him, as his current margin is just 0.02 per cent.

Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs was one of the Liberal’s few good news stories at the last election when it was retained by Ian Goodenough.

But after missing out on Liberal preselection, Goodenough will run as an independent.

His decision to run an open ticket and not direct preferences to his former party could give Labor a leg-up in a seat it only needs a swing of 0.91 per cent to flip.

Another ultra-marginal contest on the government’s radar is Sturt. James Stevens saw his buffer in the eastern Adelaide seat collapse from 6.9 per cent in 2019 to 0.5 in 2022, and it’s dropped again to 0.45 per cent after redistribution.

While it’s only voted Liberal since 1972, a strong Labor state government and the nomination of local councillor Claire Clutterham have Sturt in play this year.

Anthony Albanese has previously declared the Tasmanian seat of Bass as a “must-win”, although defeating local Liberal MP Bridget Archer will be a tough ask – having built a reputation for crossing the floor, she retained the electorate in 2022, even gaining a narrow two-party preferred swing.

The government is also hoping to win back neighbouring Braddon, sending senator Anne Urquhart onto the lower-house ticket, but with a margin beyond 8 per cent, it appears a tough ask.

Then there’s New South Wales, where Labor would dearly love to reclaim two seats it once considered strongholds: Fowler and Banks.

Both in south-western Sydney, Banks is currently held by Liberal foreign affairs spokesperson David Coleman on a margin of 2.64 per cent.

Fowler had been won by Labor at every election since its creation in 1984 before a disastrous piece of pre-selection in 2022, when Kristina Kenneally was parachuted into the seat at the expense of local lawyer Tu Le.

The former NSW premier suffered a 15.6 per cent swing against her as independent Dai Le – the local deputy mayor – won the seat.

Tu Le has been preselected for Labor this time around, but with Dai Le now enjoying a higher profile and the benefit of incumbency, a decision made three years ago could cruel the government’s chances this time around. 

The curious case of Queensland

Despite being the third-biggest state, Queensland isn’t particularly important when it comes to the Coalition picking up seats, purely because Labor holds so few of them in the first place.

It only has five of the state’s 30 electorates – several of which are home to high-profile MPs, including Treasurer Jim Chalmers in Rankin (9.1 per cent margin), Speaker Milton Dick in Oxley (11.6 per cent) and newly minted cabinet minister Anika Wells in Lilley (10.5 per cent). 

If the government loses those, it’ll likely be part of such a comprehensive nationwide swing to the Coalition that three or four seats won’t really matter.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton holds Dickson, the most marginal electorate in the Sunshine State at just 1.7 per cent.

Labor has been throwing serious resources at the seat in an attempt to topple Dutton – Anthony Albanese even began his campaign there on March 29 – although it would be a major upset for a party leader to be ousted by their own constituents.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with Labor candidate for Bonner, Kara Cook, and a baby during a visit to a an early voting polling place, in the electorate of Bonner, in Wynnum
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese campaigned in the marginal electorate of Bonner just days before the election. (Alex Ellinghausen)

The government is eyeing off the nation’s northernmost seat of Leichhardt (3.44 per cent margin), where long-serving LNP MP Warren Entsch is retiring, but the Coalition may be a better chance of flipping Blair in outer Brisbane (5.23 per cent).

Bonner (3.41 per cent) has also come right into the government’s calculations, with Albanese visiting the Brisbane seat during his final week of campaigning.

Where Queensland could be particularly instructive is the three inner-Brisbane seats held by the Greens: Brisbane, held by Stephen Bates on a 3.73 per cent margin, Griffith (Max Chandler-Mather; 10.46 per cent) and Ryan (Elizabeth Watson-Brown; 2.65 per cent). 

All loom three-way contests between the Greens, Labor and the Coalition where preference flows will play a crucial role.

While Chandler-Mather is the most likely to retain his seat – he alone of those three Greens MPs finished top on first preferences, and has built a high profile with his campaigning on the housing crisis – the other two could end up falling any one of three ways.

One or two gains for Labor would be a valuable buffer, with losses expected in NSW and Victoria, while if the LNP picks up the seats it used to hold, it would put the Coalition a lot closer to winning the election.

Share this @internewscast.com
You May Also Like
TEHRAN, IRAN - JULY 6: (----EDITORIAL USE ONLY - MANDATORY CREDIT - 'IRANIAN LEADER PRESS OFFICE / HANDOUT' - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS----) Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei makes his first public appearance since the war with Israel by attending an Ashura ceremony in Tehran, Iran, on July 6, 2025. Khamenei, who did not join the previous three nights of Muharram mourning events held at his residence on Palestine Street, participated

Iran’s Supreme Leader Emerges Publicly for the First Time Since Onset of Iran-Israel Conflict

Khamenei’s absence during the war suggested heavy security for the Iranian leader,…

Devastating Texas Floods Claim Over 43 Lives; Numerous Children Still Unaccounted For

Some 43 people, including 15 children, have been confirmed dead following flash…
WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 30: Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks alongside U.S. President Donald Trump to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on May 30, 2025 in Washington, DC. Musk, who served as an adviser to Trump and led the Department of Government Efficiency, announced he would leave his role in the Trump administration to refocus on his businesses.  (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Elon Musk Announces Launch of The America Party, Signaling a Shift from Trump

Tesla founder and billionaire Elon Musk has announced the name of his…

Understanding Our Reactions to Emotional Displays in the Workplace

This week, UK chancellor Rachel Reeves gained international attention — not because…

How Some Millionaires in Australia Avoid Paying Taxes and Who Might Be Worse

Avoiding tax can almost seem like a national sport in Australia, but…
A Camp Mystic sign is seen near the entrance to the establishment along the banks of the Guadalupe River after a flash flood swept through the area in Hunt, Texas, Saturday, July 5, 2025. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Flash Floods in Texas Claim 37 Lives, Including 14 Children

The storm killed at least 37 people across the state, including 14…
Friends of Sydney socialite and stylist Kelly Smythe (pictured) are growing concerned in the wake of her shocking forgery scam scandal

Rising Worry for Ex-Sydney Socialite and Fashion Icon Kelly Smythe Following Alleged Forgery Scandal Accusations

Friends of Sydney socialite and stylist Kelly Smythe are growing concerned in…
A concerned Melbourne father has uncovered that alleged paedophile Joshua Brown worked at his daughter's childcare last year.

“You Feel Disturbed”: Melbourne Dad Finds Alleged Pedophile Next to His Daughter

A concerned Melbourne father has uncovered that alleged paedophile Joshua Brown worked…
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese keynote speech John Curtin research centre

“PM’s Discreet Note on Australia’s Independent Approach Amid US Dependence”

Anthony Albanese appeared to subtly try to indicate a move away from…
Two teenagers charged after allegedly crashing stolen car into tow truck on the Gold Coast

Teens Arrested Following Alleged Mercedes Theft and Collision with Tow Truck

Two teenagers have been charged over an alleged hit and run involving…
Para Hill party

Vacation Home Vandalized After Over 100 Partygoers Attend Event

A wild 17th birthday party has left a major cleanup at a…
Man hit by police car in Darlinghurst

Police Car Strikes Man During Response to Sydney Brawl

A 35-year-old man was struck when he ran onto William Street in…