The political landscape for the Liberal Party’s emerging leaders appears increasingly precarious, with key figures such as Josh Frydenberg, Dave Sharma, and Michael Sukkar facing the possibility of losing their parliamentary seats. This development comes as Peter Dutton narrowly sidesteps a similar fate, underscoring the turbulent times for the party.
In the event of an electoral defeat, Scott Morrison is widely anticipated to step away from politics, leaving behind a leadership vacuum that Frydenberg and his peers were poised to fill for the Coalition’s future endeavors. However, the electoral tide seems to be turning against them, with Labour and independent candidates mounting strong challenges that could see these potential leaders ousted as early as tonight.
Particularly concerning for the Liberal Party is the situation of Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in the Melbourne seat of Kooyong. According to election analyst Anthony Green, Frydenberg is at significant risk of losing this historically Liberal stronghold.
As of 8:30 PM, with roughly 30% of the votes tallied, Frydenberg, aged 50, finds himself trailing behind independent candidate Monique Ryan. He holds 42.5% of the primary vote, while Ryan closely follows with 40.8%, reflecting a notable 6.7% swing against him.
This unfolding scenario not only casts doubt on the future leadership of the Liberal Party but also signals a potentially dramatic shift in the Australian political scene. The full implications of tonight’s results will be keenly observed as they unfold.
Mr Frydenberg had 42.5 per cent of the primary vote, just ahead of Ms Ryan on 40.8 per cent, suffering a 6.7 per cent swing against him.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg enjoys a sausage with son Blake after voting on Saturday
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg running with wife Amie in Canberra. The pair met at a Melbourne bar in 2008 and share two children
Labor’s Peter Lynch has 6.7 per cent of the vote with Piers Mitchem of The Greens on 6.2 per cent – both of whom will heavily preference Ms Ryan.
Channel Nine political editor Chris Ullman said Mr Frydenberg was ‘in a world of pain’ and would be missed if he lost.
‘Anyone who knows him knows he is one of the hardest working people in parliament,’ he said on Nine’s panel.
The ABC projected Defence Minister Mr Dutton would be booted out of parliament loosing his long-held Queensland seat to Labor.
But just minutes after making the shock call that climate-conscious campaigner Ali France would claim the seat of Dickson, the projection changed.
Mr Dutton was on 45.3 per cent of the vote while Ms had 54.7 per cent with 13.3 per cent of the total ballots counted.
But later that all changed with the man who has held the seat since 2001 taking the lead with 51.8 per cent with 46 per cent tallied.
Labor and The Greens have more than Mr Dutton’s primary vote, but strong showings by One Nation and United Australia will preference the Liberals.
The ABC projected Defence Minister Peter Dutton would be booted out of parliament loosing his long-held Queensland seat to Labor
Finally in the seat of Deakin in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, Assistant Treasurer and Housing Minister Michael Sukkar is also under threat.
Green lists Deakin as a likely ALP gain with Mr Sukkar falling behind with 30 per cent of the vote counted.
Mr Sukkar has 38.4 per cent of the vote to Labor challenger Matt Gregg’s 34.7 per cent and The Greens with 15.9 per cent.
After projected preferences, Mr Gregg was ahead 50.2 per cent to 49.8 per cent.
Losing three of its brightest stars would throw the Liberal Party into chaos in the event it lost the election.
Finally in the seat of Deakin in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, Assistant Treasurer and Housing Minister Michael Sukkar is also under threat
Mr Morrison, like all defeated prime ministers, would be almost certain to quit politics, leaving a gaping hole needing to be filled.
Without senior lieutenants like Mr Dutton, Mr Frydenberg, and Mr Sukkar, there would be few seasoned leaders to step into the void.
Two other potential party leaders, Dave Sharma and Jason Falinski, are in even more trouble and are all but certain to lose their seats.
Mr Falinski has lost his seat, with teal independent Sophie Scamps the new member for Mackellar on Sydney’s northern beaches.
Ms Scamps snared 53.9 per cent of the vote as of 9pm on Saturday, stunning rival Falinski, who has represented the seat since 2016.
Jason Falinski has lost his seat, with teal independent Sophie Scamps the new member for Mackellar on Sydney’s northern beaches
In Sydney’s wealthy eastern suburbs, Allegra Spender is set to knock off Liberal MP Dave Sharma (pictured), a former ambassador to Israel, in Wentworth
Ms Scamps has amassed strong community support in the lead up to the election by placing focus on climate change.
She has also pledged to address housing affordability and mental health services for young people.
In Sydney’s wealthy eastern suburbs, Allegra Spender is set to knock off Liberal MP Dave Sharma, a former ambassador to Israel, in Wentworth, once held by another former PM Malcolm Turnbull and opposition leader John Hewson.
The daughter of the late fashion designer Carla Zampatti is leading 53.7 per cent to 46.3 per cent, after preferences.
Her primary vote of 38.8 per cent is ahead of her Liberal opponent’s 37 per cent.
Sharma won back Wentworth at the 2019 election after losing a 2018 by-election to another high-profile independent, former Australian Medical Association president Dr Kerryn Phelps.
After losing some or all of those up-and-comping leader, such a damaged group would find it more difficult to compete with a Labor government in 2025 and to hold it to account.
Should Mr Dutton, the most likely of the three to hold on, prevail he would be the odds-on favourite to lead the party in the absence of Frydenberg.
