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There have been mixed results for the Greens on election night, including the loss of one of its Brisbane seats.
Redbridge Group director Simon Welsh is predicting the Greens will lose the seat of Griffith to Labor. It is currently held by Greens’ housing and homelessness spokesperson Max Chandler-Mather.
The seat of Melbourne, held by Greens leader Adam Bandt is also at risk.
“It’s not certain yet, it’s too close to call but it doesn’t look good for him,” Accent Research principal Shaun Ratcliff said.
Ratcliff said it was possible that the protest vote on Gaza may have been a drag on Greens vote in some inner city seats, particularly in Melbourne.
“The Greens have undoubtedly seen a decline in certain areas of inner-city Melbourne, and while this isn’t the sole explanation, it could be a contributing factor.”
Welsh agreed and said research leading up to polling day found voters didn’t like the politicisation of the issue.
“I think the Greens — for those older progressive voters — strayed into being seen as policitising an issue they thought shouldn’t be dealt with in that way,” he said.
“There was this sense of wanting social cohesion around this issue, so that both Muslim and Jewish communities would feel safe in this country. So anything that had that sniff of one-sidedness was certainly problematic.”
While the Greens appeared to be attracting young voters, Welsh said they may be losing their middle-aged progressive voters.
“Overall, their vote might seem stable as they attract younger voters, but they’re not gaining traction in the crucial seats,” he noted.
“They’re picking them up in the outer suburbs and being gutted by middle-aged progressive voters in the seats they’re trying to contest.”
But the Greens do have a chance of picking up the Melbourne seat of Wills, where Samantha Ratnam is facing off against Labor’s Peter Khalil.
“Labor is making up ground in Wills — [but counting] could go beyond tonight too,” Ratcliff said on Saturday night.
The Greens are also looking good in the NSW north coast seat of Richmond, where the Greens’ Mandy Nolan appears competitive against Labor’s Justine Elliot; and in the Brisbane seat of Ryan.
A Greens spokesperson has told Queensland correspondent Jesmine Cheong that the seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan were “too close to call”.
