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This indicates that Australia faces an ageing population and is at a “tipping point” for sustaining its lifestyle.
Australia’s changing birth rates
According to KPMG, Australia’s fertility rate now sits at 1.51 in 2024, well below the 2.1 replacement rate needed to sustain population growth.
“Conversely, regional areas continue to gain popularity as places to live, work, and raise families, as affordability becomes a priority for many Australians.”
The number of births in Australia has declined by 3.8 per cent between 2019 and 2024. Source: SBS News
Liz Allen, demographer at the ANU Centre for Social Policy Research, said while the analysis is based on preliminary data, not official statistics, it is concerning for Australia’s population.
Allen noted that numerous young Australians may wish to have children, however, they are altering their plans or choosing not to due to the difficulties associated with having children, amid economic or environmental worries.
“There are a number of very big issues confronting Australians; housing affordability, economic insecurity, gender inequality and climate change come together and weigh quite heavily on people and are at the forefront of people’s decision-making processes when considering having a child or having a subsequent child.”
Why do birth rates matter?
This could mean fewer people in the labour force working and paying taxes in Australia, which could put pressure on healthcare systems and government services.
Australia’s fertility rate has increased slightly since 2023, but remains below its 2013 level. Source: SBS News
“Currently, Australia’s government funds are largely fuelled by individual income tax,” Allen said.
Allen believes it is unlikely Australia will witness a “bounce back” in the average number of births per woman without “drastic and very swift” policy changes in areas such as housing affordability, economic security, gender equality, and climate action.
“However, it will still be some time before we exceed the magic 350,000 figure needed to sustain our way of life well into the 21st century.”
