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Key Points
  • US President Donald Trump is set to meet with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
  • Trump says his aim is to set up a second meeting with Putin and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
  • Zelenskyy has been adamant about not ceding territory that Russian forces occupy.
United States President Donald Trump says he will not be intimidated by Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of their meeting in Alaska to discuss a Ukraine peace agreement.
Trump told reporters: “I am president, and he’s not going to mess around with me.”
He is scheduled to meet with Putin in Alaska early on Saturday AEST and said he is unsure whether an immediate ceasefire can be achieved, but expressed interest in brokering a peace agreement with Putin.
“I’ll know within the first two minutes, three minutes, four minutes or five minutes … whether or not we’re going to have a good meeting or a bad meeting,” Trump said.

“And if it’s a bad meeting, it’ll end very quickly, and if it’s a good meeting, we’re going to end up getting peace in the pretty near future.”

Earlier, Trump said he believes Putin is ready to make a deal on ending the war in Ukraine.

“He really, I believe now, he’s convinced that he’s going to make a deal, he’s going to make a deal. I think he’s going to, and we’re going to find out,” Trump said in an interview on Fox News Radio.

Follow-up meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy

Trump also mentioned during the Fox interview he has three locations in mind for a follow-up meeting with Putin and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, although he noted that a second meeting is not guaranteed.

He said staying in Alaska for a three-way summit would be the easiest scenario.

He said a second meeting featuring Putin and Zelenskyy would likely dig deeper into boundary issues.
Zelenskyy has been adamant about not ceding territory that Russian forces occupy.

Trump said it would be up to Putin and Zelenskyy to strike an agreement.

What does Trump want from Alaska talks?

The Nobel Peace Prize. Trump has openly and repeatedly sought the world’s most prestigious award, however unlikely many observers think it is that the Norwegian committee would bestow the honour on the divisive president.

Trump has boasted of his deal-making skills and had vowed to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours, but his calls to Putin went unheeded even after Trump put heavy pressure on Zelenskyy to compromise, including by cutting US aid.
The billionaire has also said that he sees business opportunities in Russia, which remains under Western sanctions over the war.
Many European leaders fear that in a one-on-one meeting, Trump could fall under the sway of Putin, for whom he has voiced admiration in the past.

At a 2018 summit, Trump stunned viewers by siding with Putin over US intelligence in denying that Russia intervened in the 2016 US election to support Trump.

What are Putin’s priorities?

To retain as much Ukrainian territory as possible. Russia failed in its goal of quickly seizing Ukraine in its February 2022 invasion but in recent months has made steady gains on the battlefield, leading Putin to believe he has an upper hand militarily.
John Herbst, the former US ambassador to Ukraine, said that Putin already knows what a deal could look like — a ceasefire, plus some form of security guarantees for Ukraine.
“That doesn’t give Putin what he wants, which is control over all of Ukraine. But it doesn’t matter what Putin wants. If he can’t get anything more, he may settle for what’s available,” said Herbst, now senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

Putin suggested the meeting with Trump after the US president threatened new sanctions on Russia unless it moves toward a ceasefire.

“The best-case scenario for Russia is… if they are able to put a deal on the table that creates some kind of a ceasefire, but that leaves Russia in control of those escalatory dynamics, [and] does not create any kind of genuine deterrence on the ground or in the skies over Ukraine,” said Sam Greene, director for democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

What does Zelenskyy want for Ukraine?

A seat at the negotiating table, and Russia out of Ukraine.
Zelenskyy will not participate in Trump’s summit with Putin — a sharp shift from previous US president Joe Biden’s insistence on “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”
Trump has promised to involve Zelenskyy, possibly with a three-way summit — if Putin agrees.
But Trump has also again insisted that Ukraine needs to make territorial concessions, which Zelenskyy has refused.
For Ukrainians, “It looks like it’s two big powers that are just deciding the fate of Ukraine without any Ukrainians at the table,” said Olga Tokariuk, also at CEPA.

For Ukraine, the best-case scenario would be no agreement between Putin and Trump and the imposition of new sanctions on Russia, she said.

Men in fatigue sitting in a bus with their hands raised in a victory sign.

In the 67th exchange since the start of the war, Russian and Ukrainian authorities say both sides have exchanged 84 prisoners of war. Credit: AP

But Herbst said Zelenskyy could accept a deal in which Russia controls what it has — without formal recognition of its conquest.

Putin in turn would accept “that his notion of taking more of Ukraine and restoring the Russian Empire is kaput,” Herbst said.

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