As tensions escalate in the Middle East, Iran’s military has issued a stark warning that oil prices could soar to $200 per barrel. This comes in the wake of Iranian forces targeting merchant vessels in the strategically vital, yet blockaded, Gulf region. The situation remains fraught with uncertainty as global markets watch closely.

In a bold escalation, Iran has launched attacks on Israel and various targets across the Middle East. This follows a series of airstrikes by both the United States and Israel, which the Pentagon has described as its most intense operations to date. The conflict shows no immediate signs of abating, leaving the international community on edge.

Earlier in the week, oil prices experienced a sharp increase, though they have since somewhat stabilized. Stock markets have also rebounded, buoyed by investor optimism that U.S. President Donald Trump might swiftly conclude the conflict he initiated alongside Israel nearly two weeks ago. In a phone interview with Axios, Trump expressed confidence, stating there was “practically nothing left” to target in Iran, aiming to allay market fears.

Nevertheless, the reality on the ground tells a different story. There is still no clear indication of when maritime navigation through the Strait of Hormuz might be deemed safe again. This narrow corridor along the Iranian coast is critical, as it handles about 20% of the world’s oil supply. The current blockade represents the most severe disruption to energy supplies since the oil crises of the 1970s.

In response to the looming energy crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has made an unprecedented decision to release 400 million barrels of oil. This significant measure aims to tame escalating crude prices and stabilize the global market amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has agreed to release 400 million barrels of ‌oil, the largest such move in its history, to try to rein in crude prices.

The IEA said ‌the release had been backed unanimously by 32 member countries, including Australia, in the sixth such move it has made since its creation in the 1970s.

It is aimed at preventing a further rise in ‌oil prices on fears that Iranian attacks will continue to block Middle East oil exports from reaching markets.

“Get ready for oil ‌to be $US200 a barrel because ‌the oil price depends on regional security, which ⁠you have destabilised,” Ebrahim Zolfaqari, a spokesperson for Iran’s military command, said in comments addressed to the US.

Oil prices, which shot up briefly to nearly $US120 a barrel on Monday, have since settled around $US90, suggesting investors are betting on a swift end to the war and reopening of the strait.

After offices of a bank in Tehran were hit overnight, Zolfaqari also said Iran would respond with attacks on banks that do business with the US or Israel.

People across the Middle East should stay 1,000 metres from those banks, he added.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said their forces had fired on three ships in the Gulf that had disobeyed their orders.

One, a Thai-flagged bulk carrier, was set ablaze, forcing the crew to leave, with three people reported missing and believed trapped in the engine room.

Reuters could not verify another second incident described by the IRGC, involving what they ⁠described as a Liberian-flagged ship.

The strikes raised the number of merchant ships that have been hit since the war began to 14.

A senior Israeli official told Reuters that Israeli leaders now privately accept that Iran’s ruling system could survive the war.

Two other Israeli officials said there was no sign the US was close to ending the campaign.

The Iranian military said on Tuesday it had launched missiles at targets including a US base in northern Iraq, the US naval headquarters for the Middle East in Bahrain and at targets in central Israel.

In Tehran, residents said they were growing accustomed to nightly air strikes that have sent hundreds of thousands of people fleeing to the countryside and contaminated the ‌city with black rain from oil smoke.

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