Keir Starmer is facing a turbulent week, and it’s only halfway through. The UK Prime Minister’s hold on power seemed precarious as Monday unfolded, with speculation rife in the corridors of Westminster about whether his leadership would be challenged.

The turbulence stems from Starmer’s controversial decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the United States, a move he has since had to apologize for. This decision has put him in the hot seat, raising questions about his judgment.

Mandelson, once a prominent figure in UK politics, has long been known to have had ties with Jeffrey Epstein. However, the depth of their association has only recently come to light, following the release of newly uncovered Epstein files.

Currently, authorities are delving into the possibility that Mandelson, who previously served as the UK’s business secretary, might have leaked sensitive market information to Epstein, a notorious American sex offender.

While Mandelson was removed from his ambassadorial role in Washington months ago and has expressed regret over his links with Epstein, he firmly denies any involvement in illegal activities.

Mandelson was dismissed from his Washington posting months ago and has said he was “sorry” for his association with Epstein, but denies any criminal wrongdoing.

The decision to appoint Mandelson has led many inside and outside UK Labour to wonder what it says about Starmer’s judgement.

‘A huge distraction’

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar was the first big party name to call for Starmer to step down, declaring “the leadership in Downing Street has become a huge distraction”.

There’s subtext to this. His party is expected to do poorly in the upcoming Scottish parliamentary election, thanks largely to dissatisfaction with the government down in Westminster. This was his attempt to differentiate Scottish Labour from its southern friends.

Had Sarwar’s call been followed by similar demands from the leader of Labour in Wales, along with ministers and influential MPs, perhaps Starmer would’ve been forced out.

But in the minutes after the hastily arranged Glasgow press conference, Starmer’s entire cabinet posted statements supporting the prime minister.

Even his critics and rivals — former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner chief among them — said it’s not the time to change leader.

The mess left Sarwar looking disloyal and the party fractured. In politics, if you’re going to stick your head above the parapet, it’s wise to make sure you know others will follow.

The pressure’s not off entirely

While Starmer sounded confident at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, thanking colleagues for their support, he’s not safe yet.

Later this month, a by-election will be held in the Manchester suburbs. It’s a seat Labour should retain, with a 13,000-vote majority. But Nigel Farage’s populist, right-wing Reform UK is polling strongly, and a resurgent Green Party could split the left vote.

Then in May, there are elections for the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales, as well as many English councils.

Should Labour lose control of the Welsh Senedd, it would be a disaster for the party and make it very hard for Starmer to remain in power.

‘You’re joking — not another one!’

One of the great catchphrases in British politics was coined by Brenda from Bristol. It was her exasperated response to a BBC reporter when she was asked about the prospect of another general election in 2017.

Many Brits today would think the same about a new prime minister. Should Starmer go, the UK will have had five leaders in four years.

Labour was elected in a landslide back in 2024, on a promise to “stop the chaos” after 14 years of Conservative rule that included Brexit, Boris Johnson, COVID-19 and the seven-week circus of the Liz Truss government.

The advantage Starmer has over both Johnson and Truss is that there is no credible alternative candidate to challenge him.

Rayner’s still dealing with a tax issue, highly-rated health secretary Wes Streeting is defending his own friendship with Mandelson, and other options being discussed internally have almost zero name recognition among the wider public.

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