Monique Ryan  at The Auburn Hotel, for Federal Election in Hawthorn  East on Saturday 3 May 2025.
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Teal independent Monique Ryan appears poised to fend off the Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer and retain her parliamentary position, following the announcement of several tightly contested seats.

Nine projects that Ryan will defeat Hamer in the battle for the former blue-ribbon stronghold of Kooyong.

By approximately 12:30 pm (AEST), Ryan held a narrow lead, securing 50.4 percent against Hamer’s 49.6 percent in the two-candidate preferred tally, with a margin exceeding 800 votes.

Monique Ryan  at The Auburn Hotel, for Federal Election in Hawthorn  East on Saturday 3 May 2025.
Monique Ryan is projected to narrowly hold on to her seat of Kooyong. (Luis Enrique Ascui)

Despite postal votes leaning towards Hamer—although not as strongly as for Liberal candidate Tim Wilson in nearby Goldstein, where he defeated Zoe Daniel—Ryan’s substantial support from absentee and pre-poll declaration votes should allow her to maintain the seat she previously took from former treasurer Josh Frydenberg in 2022.

There was better news for the Liberals in another neck-and-neck race against a teal, with Gisele Kapterian projected to win the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield.

Independent Nicolette Boele had been fancied to claim the seat following the retirement of former MP Paul Fletcher, and had been in a strong position following counting on election night.

Amelia Hamer shakes hands with voters at a community event.
Amelia Hamer will miss out on election by just a few hundred votes. (Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images)

However, Kapterian has outperformed her on postals, declarations and absentees.

The two-candidate preferred count is sitting at 50.1 per cent to 49.9 per cent – a lead of 214 votes for Kapterian.

Elsewhere, Labor’s David Smith is projected to have defeated independent Jessie Price in what was a surprisingly close contest in the outer Canberra seat of Bean.

The newly-established Bullwinkel in Perth’s east has also been called for Labor, taking the government to 93 seats in the House of Representatives.

Gisele Kapterian.
Gisele Kapterian is set to win Bradfield for the Liberal Party. (James Brickwood)

That’s the highest seat tally in Australian history, but could still grow further, with Labor leading in Calwell, although the northern Melbourne electorate is not likely to be called for some time yet.

The other seats which remain too close to call include Ryan in Brisbane, where Elizabeth Watson-Brown is ahead as she looks to maintain a presence for the Greens in the lower house.

The remaining undecided contests are Flinders and Monash in Victoria, and Longman in Queensland.

The Liberal candidate in each is currently leading all three counts, but they remain too close to call.

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