Authorities have made a significant breakthrough in the investigation surrounding the suspected abduction of Nancy Guthrie.

On Tuesday, FBI Director Kash Patel unveiled surveillance images that depict a masked and armed individual meddling with a camera positioned at the entrance to Guthrie’s residence.

Investigators are now urged to act swiftly and with precision to ascertain how the suspect might have escaped the vicinity. Key to this effort is focusing on a specific time frame and examining the few potential escape routes available to the suspect.

In a detailed forensic analysis, Guthrie’s pacemaker has been utilized not merely as a medical instrument but as a timekeeper to pinpoint the exact moment she may have been abducted and removed from her home.

This pacemaker serves as a crucial, impartial witness in the investigation.

It has been established that Guthrie’s pacemaker successfully synced with her phone at 2:10 a.m. MST. However, by 2:28 a.m. MST, this synchronization failed. Such a failure could occur due to several factors: battery depletion, device malfunction, connectivity disruption, or the person moving a significant distance from their phone. Typically, indoors, a pacemaker can sync within a range of ten to 30 feet.

Assuming that Nancy Guthrie is alive (as we all fervently hope) the time that elapsed between the last successful sync and the connection failures provides for an 18-minute window (from 2:10 to 2:28) during which she may have been taken from her home.

Next, I considered how a potential kidnapper may escape the area and observed that they would have to travel five miles from the Guthrie home to access major roadways from which they could easily travel further.

On Tuesday afternoon, FBIdirector Kash Patel released surveillance photos, appearing to show a masked, armed individual tampering with a camera at the front door of Guthrie’s home 

Relying on Nancy Guthrie’s pacemaker, not as a medical device, but as a clock, I have determined the precise window during which she was possibly abducted and exfiltrated from her residence

The Guthrie residence sits in a cul-de-sac subdivision with a single outlet corridor feeding into a road called Skyline Drive, which connects to an east-west arterial road that allows for further travel in five directions.

Based on the road network in the Catalina Foothills area and considering the terrain (mountains to the north limiting options), there are five major egress routes that lead from here to outside a five-mile radius.

• West/southwest via Skyline Drive to Campbell Avenue: Leads south into central Tucson or west toward Oracle Road (SR 77) and eventually I-10.

• South via Skyline Drive to Swan Road: Leads south into urban Tucson.

• Southeast via Skyline Drive to Kolb Road: Leads south toward east Tucson or southeast along the base of the mountains.

• East via Skyline Drive to Sunrise Drive extension: Connects to Tanque Verde Road, leading east out of the city.

• Northeast via Skyline Drive to Catalina Highway: Leads up into the Santa Catalina Mountains toward Mount Lemmon (limited through traffic due to terrain).

At a speed of 25 to 45mph, it would take anywhere from 6.5 minutes to 12 minutes to hit the edge of the radius using one of those five egress routes between 2:16 to 2:40.

This analysis provides a discrete area, within the five-mile radius, and a time frame that investigators must examine. And the data plays to the authorities’ advantage.

During rush hour, a vehicle leaving a crime scene can hide in plain sight. At 2:30am, that same vehicle would stick out, especially in a residential area that wouldn’t normally have vehicle traffic at that time.

Those ‘corridors of escape’ should be the focus of renewed analysis of traffic data, license plate readers, surveillance cameras, and witness re-interviews tied to that precise period. And many times, a break in a case comes from non-obvious sources.

Morgan Wright is CEO and Founder of the National Center for Open and Unsolved Cases. His substack is Open and Unsolved

A Snapchat video filmed by Paul Murdaugh at 8:44pm captured the voice of his father Alex Murdaugh at the South Carolina family’s dog kennels just minutes before Alex murdered his wife and Paul, proving Alex was at the crime scene despite his repeated claims that he’d been napping at home.

Nature lovers in Tucson may observe cameras operated by the Coalition for Sonoran Desert Protection, which has four cameras placed on either side of Oracle Road, just north of Guthrie’s residence and one of the escape corridors I’ve identified.

Investigators must ask: was anyone in the area driving a Tesla, which is equipped with Sentry Mode – a built-in 360-degree camera system that serves as both a continuous dashcam and a security system?

Were any seemingly oblivious witnesses posting from media apps such as Instagram, TikTok and Snapchat at these times, in these locations?

Finally, one factor that has received scant attention may be the most critical.

If the abductors were unfamiliar with the area, they would likely have relied on a navigation app to move efficiently and modern navigation systems’ leave a trail.

Apps that provide real-time routing, traffic avoidance, or directions generate records – either on the device itself, through service providers or across cellular networks. Even attempts to obscure identity often fail to eliminate metadata entirely.

The Guthrie residence sits in a cul-de-sac subdivision with a single outlet corridor feeding into a road called Skyline Drive. (Pictured: Aerial view shows the home of Nancy Guthrie, bottom right)

Investigators should be asking: did anyone in the relevant escape corridors exhibit navigation-related digital activity during the critical timeframe?

If the offenders were technically savvy, they may have tried to mitigate this risk. But mitigation is not elimination. Digital systems are designed to log, cache, and transmit – and silence can be as revealing as activity.

The recover of the image of a possible suspect provides an opportunity for investigators to look at this case with fresh eyes.

I encourage them to do so with precision and focus.

Morgan Wright is CEO and Founder of the National Center for Open and Unsolved Cases. He spent 18 years in state and local law enforcement as a highly decorated state trooper and detective and taught behavioral analysis at the National Security Agency.