Manchester United’s Champions League hopes are in the balance following their shock 4-3 defeat away against Copenhagen, a result that leaves Erik ten Hag’s side bottom of Group A.

The Red Devils were expected to advance from the group alongside German champions Bayern Munich, but their fate is now out of their hands.

Bayern have already booked their place in the knock-out stage as group winners with two games to spare, but there is a three-way fight to advance as runners-up.

Here, Mail Sport takes a look at the nine possible permutations for Man United.

Man United’s 4-3 defeat against Copenhagen has left the Red Devils bottom of Group A

The Red Devils face a daunting trip to Turkey with their qualification hopes out of their hands

Bayern Munich have qualified as group winners with Galatasaray joining Man United and Copenhagen in a three-way scrap to advance as the runners-up in Group A

Beat Galatasaray & Bayern Munich

Victory in their daunting trip to Galatasaray followed by a home win over an already qualified Bayern would see Man United finish the group on nine points.

Ten Hag’s side could only be denied qualification for the knock-out stage in the event Copenhagen take maximum points from their remaining two matches.

This would require the Danes to earn a shock victory at the Allianz Arena against Bayern in the next round of fixtures. Man United would drop into the Europa League should Copenhagen earn back-to-back wins. 

Beat Galatasaray & draw with Bayern Munich

These two outcomes would leave Man United on seven points and likely sweating on the result of Copenhagen’s home match against Galatasaray in the final round of matches.

Provided Copenhagen have drawn or lost to Bayern, a draw between the Danes and Galatasaray would take Man United through to the last-16.

Should either Copenhagen or Galatasaray win they would join Man United on seven points. As Man United would have an identical head-to-head against both sides, goal difference would determine who finishes as the runner-up and which side drops into the Europa League.

A unlikely Copenhagen win over Bayern could spell curtains for Man United, as the Danes would be guaranteed second spot with a win or draw against Galatasaray.

Copenhagen beating Bayern and losing to Galatasaray would see a three-way tie for second, with the Turkish side advancing on their head-to-head record. 

Galatasaray are third in Group A but are currently the favourites to join Bayern in the last-16

Beat Galatasaray & lose to Bayern Munich

Man United would finish on six points in this scenario and would need Copenhagen to lose to Bayern to stand any chance of progressing.

If they do, the Red Devils would finish second if Copenhagen and Galatasaray draw their final match, as both teams would finish on five points.

A win for either sends Man United into the Europa League. 

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If Copenhagen draw their remaining two matches they would also finish on six points, meaning goal difference would determine whether they or Man United advance.

Draw with Galatasaray & beat Bayern Munich

In this scenario, Ten Hag’s side finish the group on seven points. 

A knock-out spot would be secured if Copenhagen lose to Bayern and draw with Galatasaray. Galatasaray would finish on six points and Copenhagen on five.

Should Copenhagen lose to Bayern and beat Galatasaray in the final round of matches, they would finish level with Man United. Goal difference would then separate the two sides. 

United are definitely out if Galatasaray win against Copenhagen, leaving Europa League football as their best outcome. This would be determined on goal difference.

A Copenhagen win over Bayern would end United’s Champions League campaign. Such a result would guarantee either the Danes or Galatasaray surpass their total.

A defeat against Galatasaray at the end of the month would end Man United’s last-16 hopes

Draw both games

Out. Could finish third if Copenhagen fail to pick up two points from their remaining matches.  

Lose to Galatasaray & beat Bayern Munich

Out. Would secure Europa League football if Copenhagen lose a match or on goal difference if the Danes draw both games.

Lose to Galatasaray & draw with Bayern

Out. Would need Copenhagen to lose both matches, with goal difference determining who drops into the Europa League.

Lose both matches

Man United finish bottom. 

Summary

While Manchester United’s hopes will be ended with a defeat against Galatasaray, the likelihood is they must win in Turkey and then secure a positive result against Bayern to stand a chance to progressing.

The OptaAnalyst gives Manchester United a 26 per cent chance of reaching the last-16.

Galatasaray are favourites on 45 per cent despite lying third, after getting both of their matches against Bayern out of the way.