Brazil President Lula, 80, Re-Elected for Fourth Term

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term on Sunday, defeating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, in a closely fought runoff election.

Official results showed Lula, the leftist incumbent, winning 51.7 percent of the vote, compared with 48.2 percent for Flavio Bolsonaro.

The 80-year-old Lula staged a dramatic comeback after finishing a surprise second in the first round of voting.

Flavio Bolsonaro had topped the first-round ballot and campaigned on reviving his father’s far-right movement, as well as pardoning the former president.

The unexpected result defied polling, historical precedent and a broader global backlash against incumbents, halting a series of right-wing victories across Latin America.

For much of the campaign, Lula’s reelection appeared uncertain. Voters had grown frustrated with him and his Workers’ Party following years of corruption scandals and rising prices. At the same time, sweeping social and economic changes made the former metalworker and union leader appear increasingly disconnected from an app-based economy and its expanding ranks of informal workers.

Lula’s victory represents another remarkable comeback in a career defined by political reversals. He was imprisoned from 2018 to 2019 on corruption charges that were later overturned, clearing the way for his successful bid to defeat Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election.

‘He is a statesman, a giant,’ said leftist federal lawmaker Erika Hilton, who was alongside Lula in Sao Paulo as the votes were counted.

Final polls had placed the two candidates virtually level. Polling stations were initially scheduled to close at 5.00pm local time (2000 GMT) on Sunday, but the country’s Supreme Court extended voting by two hours after complaints that public transport disruptions had prevented some people from reaching polling stations. The extension followed a request from President Lula.

In his victory speech, Lula said Brazil ‘will not accept being anyone’s back yard,’ a reference to the United States.

He also said the warmth he encountered while campaigning was ‘something I never imagined’.

The fiercely contested election effectively became a referendum on whether Brazil would remain one of Latin America’s few leftist nations or join the region’s shift to the right, backed by US President Donald Trump.

‘Brazil can’t stand another four years like this, everyone’s life has gotten worse,’ Mr Bolsonaro said outside a polling station.

Bolsonaro had promised to hand Brazil to ‘the Lord Jesus Christ’, while vowing to take tougher action against crime and reduce government spending if elected.

But pollsters said stronger-than-expected turnout helped propel Lula to victory. Leonardo Barreto, co-founder of consultancy Think Policy, said voters had opted for Lula’s familiar approach rather than Bolsonaro’s untested alternative.

‘People today are choosing between change, with some apprehension, and a known path, which guarantees certain rights,’ he said.

During the campaign, Lula highlighted a record of declining poverty and inequality. He also pointed to record lows for unemployment, illiteracy and deforestation during his third term.

He warned Bolsonaro would cut welfare spending, backslide on social advances and hand over Brazil’s sovereignty to US President Donald Trump, whose State Department led a campaign to get the Bolsonaros back to power.

Lula’s win deprives Trump of a major addition to what has been a growing bloc of friendly right-wing Latin American governments that have embraced Washington’s agenda on security and migration.

Celso Amorim, a former Lula foreign minister, told Reuters the leftist ‘would be very important for establishing a point of balance in Latin America. Lula is that balance.’

Lula becomes the first candidate since Brazil’s return to democracy in the 1980s to be elected after finishing second in the first round.

Lula, who was president between 2003 and 2011, campaigned on a potent mix of pragmatism and populism that has shaped his career in national politics for half a century, rolling out a slew of reforms aimed at improving the lives of workers and poor Brazilians.

These gained steam with late-campaign pledges that ranged from free nationwide weekend public ​transport, which has to be formally submitted to Congress, to a ‌15% increase in his trademark welfare program that is already being implemented.

Lula also championed a constitutional amendment that became Brazil’s biggest labor reform in decades, which passed with wide support in Congress.

But Lula’s fourth term could be his most difficult yet, after Brazil elected its most conservative Congress since returning to democracy in the 1980s.

Combined, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) and allied parties could control over 280 seats in the lower house and up to 50 seats in the Senate, enough for comfortable majorities in both chambers.

‘He is likely to be a lame duck from the start,’ said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo.

The incoming legislature will likely deepen recent trends of presidents ceding power to Congress, Stuenkel said, predicting Lula will face waning influence over Supreme Court nominations, unwieldy party coalitions, and even the threat of impeachment.