Hurricane Polo intensified rapidly Tuesday morning, reaching Category 5 strength as forecasters monitored the possibility that moisture from the powerful Pacific storm could eventually affect parts of the United States.
The hurricane was producing maximum sustained winds of up to 160 mph and traveling east at roughly 6 mph, about 360 miles southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.
Polo was moving east across the Pacific, but the National Hurricane Center said the storm is expected to curve sharply northwest Tuesday night before turning west-northwest on Wednesday.
Forecast models offer several possible tracks that could carry Polo—or its weakening remnants—toward California, Arizona, New Mexico or Texas during the next week to 10 days.
Southern California could see the first effects by the weekend, including larger ocean swells, hazardous rip currents and a surge in tropical humidity, even if the hurricane stays well offshore.
Several computer projections show Polo weakening as it moves across northern Mexico, potentially sending moisture into Arizona and New Mexico before reaching western Texas later on.
Still, the majority of forecasts keep the storm over the Pacific Ocean, and the National Hurricane Center is not currently predicting a direct US landfall.
“While a few models have this storm turning into the Gulf of California, and possibly into the Southwestern part of the US, most weather maps push this storm northwest away from land,” 13ABC meteorologist Ross Ellet wrote on Facebook. “This will need to be watched in the days ahead.”
Hurricane Polo rapidly intensified to Category 5 strength Tuesday morning
Several forecast scenarios show Polo or its remnants moving toward California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas within seven to 10 days
Forecasters said Polo may gain additional strength through Tuesday night, though fluctuations in intensity are possible on Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extended up to 35 miles from the storm’s center, while tropical-storm-force winds reached as far as 90 miles.
A tropical storm watch covered part of Mexico’s coastline from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, where dangerous weather conditions could begin arriving early Wednesday.
Between four and eight inches of rain could fall across coastal Guerrero and Michoacán through Thursday, with isolated totals of up to 12 inches. Forecasters warned that the intense rainfall could produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.
Parts of coastal Oaxaca, Colima and Jalisco could receive three to six inches of rain. Polo’s powerful swells are also expected to create dangerous surf and strong rip currents along Mexico’s southwestern shoreline.
“Polo is forecast to become one of the strongest hurricanes of all-time in the Eastern Pacific,” Florida WSVN 7 News meteorologist Dylan Federico said on Facebook.
Spaghetti models, which display a range of computer-generated possibilities for a storm’s future path, currently show only a small number of tracks leading toward the United States.
California remains the earliest potential US target, with a limited number of forecasts showing Polo’s center approaching the state.
Polo was packing maximum sustained winds of up to 160 mph while moving east about 360 miles from Zihuatanejo, Mexico
Even without a direct impact, Southern California may experience bigger swells, dangerous rip currents and unusually humid conditions by the weekend.
Arizona has the clearest potential path, with several tracks carrying the system north through the Gulf of California or Sonora between Monday and Wednesday of next week, potentially bringing heavy tropical rain and flash flooding.
Fewer tracks reach New Mexico, with those that do carrying a much weaker system or tropical moisture east from Arizona and northern Mexico during the middle of next week.
Heavy rainfall and localized flooding would be the primary threats.
Texas is the least certain and most distant possibility. A handful of projections carry Polo’s moisture into western or southern Texas late next week, but they do not show a Category 5 hurricane reaching the state.
