Democrats may be on course for a stunning midterm election landslide that could wrest control of Congress from Republicans, according to CNN’s leading polling analyst.
Harry Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, said the latest figures point to a potentially devastating night for President Donald Trump’s party.
In a forecast delivered Sunday, Enten said Democrats have a strong chance of making major gains in the House of Representatives and are also favored to win a comfortable majority in the Senate.
With the November elections little more than a week away, Enten suggested the contest for control of Capitol Hill may be less competitive than many political observers expect.
His analysis instead points to the possibility of a bruising Republican defeat—one that could significantly alter the balance of power in Washington.
“The midterms are just days away and I’m pouring over hundreds, no thousands, of polls and data points,” Enten told viewers.
“And you know what the numbers are telling me? They are telling me that we are heading towards blowout territory! My goodness gracious!”
The CNN analyst stressed that his striking projection was based on statistical modeling, not personal political views.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said the midterm elections were entering “blowout territory,” citing a 71 percent chance that either party would win at least 230 House seats
President Donald Trump faces the possibility of losing Republican control of Congress after CNN polling expert Harry Enten warned that the midterms were entering “blowout territory.” Trump campaigned in Port Huron, Michigan, on Sunday
Enten’s forecast projects that Democrats could win 238 seats in the House of Representatives, up from the 232 seats projected in August, raising the prospect of a crushing Republican defeat
“And of course, don’t be angry with me because the numbers do the talking and I just listen,” he added.
Enten began with the House race, where Democrats are seeking to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction and take the congressional majority away from Republicans.
His model gave Democrats a 71 percent chance of winning at least 230 House seats—a result he described as “a blowout.”
“The chance of a House blowout is 71%, 71%,” Enten said. “Now, there’s a 29% chance that it doesn’t happen, right? But 71% things happen more often than 29% things! I know enough of math to know that.”
The outlook appeared even worse for Republicans when Enten examined which party was most likely to achieve such a commanding House majority.
His analysis put the Republican chance of winning at least 230 seats at just 2 percent.
Democrats, meanwhile, had a 69 percent chance of reaching that mark.
“We haven’t seen the type of error necessary for Republicans to actually blow out the Democrats,” Enten said.
President Donald Trump also appeared to have seen the CNN polling video, part of which he played during a campaign rally in Port Huron, Michigan
Former President Barack Obama has been back on the campaign trail over the weekend, rallying Democratic voters ahead of the midterms as new election forecasts suggest his party could make substantial gains in both the House and Senate
Despite predicting major Democratic gains, Enten revealed that mid-October congressional polling has often underestimated Republican support in 15 of 16 elections since 1994
‘What we’re talking about here is that Democrats are really the ones who have the real chance of blowing out the Republicans.’
He described their prospects as ‘a very, very nice 69% chance.’
Such an outcome would represent a significant political setback for Trump, potentially handing Democrats the numbers needed to challenge his administration’s legislative priorities and intensify congressional oversight.
Enten then turned his attention to the Senate, where the battle for control has been one of the most closely watched contests of the election cycle.
His analysis offers another encouraging prediction for Democrats.
According to Enten, there is a 57% chance that Democrats will emerge with at least 52 Senate seats, giving them not merely a majority but a cushion beyond the 51 seats needed for outright control.
‘It’s 57% chance that Democrats win,’ he explained. ‘Not just a majority in the United States Senate, but a majority with room to spare in the United States Senate.’
However, the analyst stressed that Republicans were far from being completely written off.
His forecast also gives the GOP a 24% chance of winning at least 51 Senate seats, meaning a decisive Republican victory remains a realistic possibility despite the Democrats’ statistical advantage.
Enten identified six fiercely contested Senate races that could determine control of the chamber, with Democrats holding narrow polling advantages in those states
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If Democrats win big, how should Republicans respond to such a sweeping shift in power?
Combining the scenarios, Enten calculated an 81% probability that either party would emerge from the Senate elections with a majority extending beyond the narrowest possible margin.
That leaves just a 19% chance of an exceptionally close outcome in which the balance of power could depend on a single contest.
‘So yeah, look, there’s a 19% chance right? On the other side of this coin that we’re really down to the wire, when we’re really counting the ballots and one state is ultimately going to decide things on election night,’ Enten said.
‘It’s possible, but it’s only about a one in five chance.’
He concluded that the most likely outcome was a Senate majority with at least one seat to spare, rather than a knife-edge result.
