My first reaction to news that counter-terrorism police had declared a “major incident” near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire and arrested several men over explosives offences was one of weary disbelief: not another one.
When the threat of an atrocity starts to feel routine, it is a sign that a country faces a serious security problem. At the time of writing, investigators are examining whether the alleged bomb plot is connected to Iran.
That is a grave possibility. Having seen at close quarters what Tehran’s regime is capable of, I believe counter-terrorism officers are right to investigate the potential link.
It is a serious allegation to make in print, so why raise it? The answer begins with the suspected target. RAF Fairford is one of the few European airfields equipped to accommodate America’s B-1 and B-52 heavy bombers. After the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28, Britain permitted American forces to use the base to launch attacks on Iranian missile sites.
Iran’s leadership reacted furiously. In July, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Britain would be a “definite and legitimate target” if it supported the American war, explicitly referring to US bombers operating from British bases.
Whether Tehran was involved in the incident at Fairford remains unknown. But if the Iranian regime was behind it, officials in Whitehall cannot say they were not warned. Even if investigators ultimately find no connection, the threat posed by Iran’s activities remains more serious than ever.
From Tehran’s perspective, Britain is now assisting a conventional military campaign against Iran. That makes British bases used in attacks potential targets. Yet although the mullahs can strike US facilities across the Middle East, launching conventional missile attacks against Britain is not a realistic option. The distance is simply too great.
To pursue its long-running conflict with the West, Iran must therefore rely on other methods. When it comes to assassination, sabotage and covert operations, the regime has shown considerable ingenuity.
Fairford is one of the few European airfields able to handle America’s B-1 and B-52 heavy bombers
For years, Iran has developed alternative ways to reach adversaries beyond the range of its missiles, using bombs, assassination teams and other clandestine tactics to continue its campaign.
Since 2022, MI5 and counter-terrorism police have disrupted more than 20 potentially deadly Iran-backed plots in Britain. The alleged plans included attempts to kill or abduct opponents of the Iranian regime.
Those targeted have included dissidents, journalists and Jewish communities and institutions. Earlier this year, I reported from Golders Green in north London after three masked men set fire to four ambulances operated by the Jewish volunteer service Hatzola, causing damage estimated at about £1 million. An Iran-linked group claimed responsibility, although no direct connection to Tehran has been established.
In March 2024, Pouria Zeraati, a presenter with the London-based opposition broadcaster Iran International, was stabbed outside his home in Wimbledon. The alleged attackers then travelled directly to Heathrow and left Britain within hours.
The assailants were Romanian criminals hired to act as proxies. Two were later extradited to Britain and imprisoned. Threats against the broadcaster became so severe that it temporarily closed its London studios and continued broadcasting from Washington.
Between 2022 and 2023, Britain was the scene of a largely thwarted campaign involving alleged assassination and kidnapping plots. Most people remained unaware that MI5 and the Metropolitan Police had disrupted at least 15 Iranian operations targeting British nationals or UK residents viewed by Tehran as opponents.
The number of alleged Iranian operations has made it possible to follow the evolution of Tehran’s tactics almost in real time. Britain has become a testing ground where Iran has refined methods of killing, spying and intimidation while attempting to keep its own involvement hidden.
Sending operatives directly from Tehran is increasingly uncommon. Instead, the IRGC and Iranian intelligence services are relying more heavily on local criminals and other intermediaries to carry out attacks on their behalf.
Counter-terrorism police are now investigating whether the alleged bomb plot is linked to Iran
The strategy offers clear advantages. Criminals are inexpensive, disposable and can make an operation more difficult to trace, helping Tehran preserve plausible deniability. MI5 has said Iranian state actors make “extensive use of criminals as proxies”, from international drug traffickers to lower-level offenders.
This is the emerging reality of Iran’s covert campaign against Britain.
And our response to all this can be summed up in one depressing image: Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband shaking hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at the United Nations in New York last week.
Labour punishes the Israelis for defending their country and extends its hand to the Iranians for attacking ours.
We have been lucky. Once again, the terror that our political class refuses to adequately confront has been foiled by the security services it refuses to adequately fund.
But don’t worry – I’m told that Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Defence Secretary Wes Streeting are being ‘regularly briefed’ on the situation. Fear is no doubt coursing through IRGC senior command as I write.
So, if we sigh with relief that the plot appears to have been foiled, our response must amount to more than a grateful exhalation – because, believe me, more Iranian attacks are coming.
