Democrats are opening the 2026 midterm cycle with a clear advantage, leading Republicans by 8 points on the generic congressional ballot as voter frustration builds over the cost of living and President Donald Trump’s management of the Iran war.
An exclusive August Daily Mail/JL Partners poll shows 50 percent of likely voters would support the Democratic candidate for Congress if the election were held now, while 42 percent would choose the Republican.
Only seven percent of voters remain undecided.
The stakes are high on Capitol Hill: Democrats need a net gain of five Republican-held seats to reclaim control of the House, while taking back the Senate would require flipping four seats.
While enthusiasm among Democratic and Republican voters is nearly even, economic anxiety is emerging as the most serious political danger sign for the GOP.
Thirty-seven percent of voters say their financial situation has deteriorated compared with a year ago, and persistent price pressures are pushing households to rein in spending.
Restaurant spending has been hit hardest, with 51 percent saying they have cut back on eating out. Another 42 percent report spending less on groceries, one-third have reduced clothing purchases, and more than a quarter say they are driving less.
Many voters are placing the blame on Trump. Sixty-three percent say he is not doing enough to lower the cost of living, compared with just 24 percent who believe he is taking sufficient action.
Forty nine percent believe Trump’s decision to launch a war with Iran was the wrong decision
Asked which party they trust to lower household costs, the Democrats own a 9-point advantage.
The economic pressure comes as Americans continue to confront high everyday expenses, making affordability likely to remain a central issue as the midterms approach.
Voters are also being asked to weigh another major issue playing on the economic hardships: Trump’s military campaign against Iran.
The survey finds that 49 percent believe launching military action against Iran was the wrong thing to do, compared with 30 percent who say it was the right decision.
Twenty-one percent are unsure.
Republicans are far more supportive, with 65 percent saying the military action was the right thing to do.
The conflict is also the issue Americans most frequently identify as Trump’s biggest blunder. Offered a list of options, 18 percent select the war with Iran, while 11 percent point to his handling of the cost of living.
The findings come as the conflict has once again erupted into open confrontation.
Thirty-seven percent of voters say they are financially worse off than they were a year ago, while higher prices are forcing Americans to cut back on everyday spending
The survey finds that 49 percent believe launching military action against Iran was the wrong thing to do, compared with 30 percent who say it was the right decision
The US launched fresh strikes against Iranian targets on Tuesday after Washington accused Tehran of attacking commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz and firing eight missiles toward US forces in Jordan
The US launched fresh strikes against Iranian targets on Tuesday after Washington accused Tehran of attacking commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz and firing eight missiles toward US forces in Jordan.
The strikes followed a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran that effectively broke down, while two Saudi oil tankers were also struck by projectiles as they left the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night.
Trump warned Tehran on Tuesday that any retaliation would bring an even more forceful American response.
The poll suggests many Americans remain unconvinced that the military campaign is succeeding.
Just 25 percent say Trump and the United States are currently winning the war, compared with 17 percent who believe Iran is winning and four percent who say Israel is. The largest group, 35 percent, says neither side is winning, while another 20 percent are unsure.
Republicans are considerably more confident in Trump’s handling of the conflict. Fifty-two percent believe Trump and the US are winning, compared with just seven percent who say Iran is winning.
Among Democrats, only 11 percent believe Trump and the US are winning, while 25 percent say Iran is winning. Forty-four percent believe neither side is winning.
There is similarly deep uncertainty over who controls the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Overall, 22 percent of Americans believe the United States is in control, compared with 25 percent who say Iran is. Thirty-two percent believe neither side is fully in control, while 21 percent are unsure.
The partisan divide is stark.
Thirty-five percent of Democrats believe Iran controls the strait, compared with just 13 percent who say the United States does. Among Republicans, 42 percent believe the US is in control, while only 14 percent say Iran is.
Americans also appear reluctant to accept greater US military involvement if it comes with higher costs at home.
Forty-six percent say they would rather pay $5 for gasoline than see the United States send more troops to Iran. Just 22 percent would choose sending additional troops, while 32 percent are unsure.
Republicans are almost evenly split, with 38 percent choosing higher gas prices and 39 percent preferring more troops.
The polling presents a potentially difficult landscape for Republicans heading into November, with Democrats holding an eight-point advantage on the congressional ballot among likely voters.
Independents are the warning sign. Just 42 percent say they are very enthusiastic about voting in the midterms, more than 20 points below both Republicans and Democrats, and almost a quarter remain undecided on which party to back — leaving a bloc of persuadable voters still in play.
At the same time, concerns over household costs and the increasingly volatile conflict with Iran give voters two major issues on which to judge the Trump administration.
With months still to go before the midterms, those numbers could change.
But for now, Democrats are entering the campaign with the stronger position — while Republicans face growing pressure to convince voters they are better off and that the administration’s approach to Iran is working.
