Down 57% In A Month, Is There More Pain For TG Therapeutics Stock?

The stock price of TG Therapeutics (NASDAQ: TGTX), a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of novel treatments for B-cell malignancies and autoimmune diseases, has seen a large 57% fall over the last month, while it is down 41% over the last five trading days. The large decline can be attributed to the U.S. FDA’s partial clinical hold on some of its clinical studies, including U2 combination – umbralisib and ublituximab – for the treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma patients. It should be noted that a couple of months back, the company in its press release announced that the FDA’s Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee has scheduled a meeting in connection with its review of U2. This unnerved the investors since it is uncommon for ODAC to schedule such a meeting unless there are concerns over efficacy, safety, or data from the clinical trials. TGTX stock plummeted 35% in a single trading session on November 30. Now after the recent announcement of a partial clinical hold, TGTX stock plunged 40% in a single day (January 27).

Given the recent 57% fall in a month, will TGTX continue its downward trajectory, or is a rebound imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of continued decline in TGTX stock over the next month. Now, such a massive decline is a rare event for TGTX stock, and it has occurred only 15 times over the last ten years. Out of those 15 instances, only 4 of them resulted in TGTX stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 4 out of 15, or a 27% chance of a rise in TGTX stock over the coming month, implying that the stock may continue to see lower levels in the near term, and it is best avoided for now, in our view. See our analysis on TG Therapeutics Stock Chances of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

• After moving -41% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 25% of the occasions.
• After moving -47% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 24% of the occasions
• After moving -57% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 27% of the occasions.

This pattern suggests that TGTX stock may fall over all of the three periods – five days, ten days, as well as over the next one month.

TG Therapeutics Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

• Five-Day Return: CRVS highest at 33.9%; TGTX lowest at -40.9%
• Ten-Day Return: KURA highest at 21.2%; TGTX lowest at -47.3%
• Twenty-One Days Return: TCON highest at 13.9%; TGTX lowest at -56.5%

While TGTX stock is likely to move lower in the near term, there are several peers in its sector that look like a better bet than TG Therapeutics. Check out how TG Therapeutics Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

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Source: Forbes