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Although a majority of eyeballs will be trained on the NCAA Tournament, the weekend Premier League slate provides a (potential) alternate revenue stream for bettors.

Only four games are set to take place across the pond this weekend, but all four feature implications for the European spots or the relegation battle.

Headlining the weekend action is Sunday’s fixture between Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United in London, but there’s plenty of other value to be had on the card.

With that said, here are my two best bets across all four fixtures.

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Wolverhampton Wanderers/Leeds United Both Teams to Score “Yes” (-135)

The lone Friday fixture features a desperate Leeds United looking to distance itself from the relegation zone against an inconsistent Wolves side in the midlands.

Since appointing American manager Jesse Marsch, Leeds’ play has slowly seen some improvement. That said, it has simultaneously come up a bit unlucky. In three fixtures under Marsch, the Peacocks own a +1.1 expected goal differential, but a -3 goal differential in reality, per fbref.com.

Most impressive has been its defense, which has conceded slightly over one expected goal per 90 minutes, which is almost 0.8 xG/90 lower than its season-long average. That said, Leeds’ defensive performances away from Elland Road have left a lot to be desired – it hasn’t kept a deserved clean sheet all season.


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Given Wolves has managed at least one goal in four of its last five against bottom-half opposition, expect at least one tally from the hosts. But, Wolves’ defense has experienced quite a bit of luck against top-half offenses at home. Through eight such fixtures, it has conceded six goals on 10.5 expected and has conceded at least once in six of eight.

Given the improvement of Leeds’ attack since the appointment of its new manager – it has generated at least two expected goals in two of three – expect it to do no worse than a goal here.

Tottenham Hotspur Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-140) vs. West Ham

Since Antonio Conte arrived in North London, Tottenham has been an offensive juggernaut, particularly at home.

In eight home matches under the Italian, Spurs have created at least 1.5 expected goals in all eight and 2.25 expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. Recent form has been good as well for Sunday’s hosts as it surpassed 1.5 xG in three straight fixtures.

Harry Kane Tottenham best bets
Harry Kane
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On the flip-side, West Ham’s road defense has been incredibly poor of late. Just in its last six Premier League fixtures, the Hammers have conceded nine goals on nearly 12 expected and haven’t kept a single side under one expected goal.

Of further concern will be West Ham’s defensive record against the Big Six this season away from home. In four such matches, it has conceded six goals on nine expected and allowed all four sides to create at least 1.8 expected goals.


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While this may be a high price to lay for some, I can’t foresee West Ham’s defense discovering its defensive identity in time to keep out a potent Spurs attack. Spurs have scored two or more in seven of its last eight at home and I expect that trend continues Sunday.

Source: NYPOST

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