Is he strange? Is he gay? Could he even be a vegan? Was his recent illness really flu, or had he gone to a mental health facility in another state?
Those are just some of the questions Texas Republicans have directed at James Talarico, the Democratic candidate seeking a seat in the US Senate.
Republican groups have flooded Texas with attack advertisements, reportedly spending an eye-watering $175 million. The campaign has been relentless, and even baseless insinuations can damage a candidate. The claim that Talarico is a vegan may be especially provocative in a state where beef is a cultural institution and vegetables are hardly treated as a political virtue.
Yet Talarico remains ahead in the polls. The Democratic contender in Kansas, a rural state that strongly backed Donald Trump, is also performing surprisingly well. In Iowa, where Trump won by 13 points two years ago—the biggest presidential margin there since 1972—the Senate contest is now being described as too close to call.
The shift has been remarkable. I was in Washington DC during the intoxicating opening months of Trump’s second presidency, when he appeared almost impossible to stop. He was energetic, entertaining and relentlessly focused, dismissing officials in the early hours and signing executive orders with a Sharpie before tossing the pen into an enthusiastic crowd.
Even some of my Democratic-supporting friends in the capital seemed oddly reassured. They believed their party needed a shock, and wondered whether Trump’s promises to curb illegal immigration, bring down inflation and challenge progressive universities might ultimately produce some positive results.
Republicans, including voters in Texas, may be quietly backing Democratic candidates in the midterm elections (Pictured: US President Donald Trump after casting his ballot in the 2026 midterm elections)
Minority voters, whom white Democrats often claimed as their natural constituency, also appeared receptive to Trump. Latino voters, in particular, supported him in record numbers.
But, as Texans might put it, the reality has not matched the image. Trump has largely sealed the border, but that success was followed by an unpopular and sometimes violent campaign against immigrants already living quietly in the United States. Inflation remains unresolved, while fuel costs have risen sharply, worsened by the war involving Iran.
Latino support for Trump has weakened, as has enthusiasm among many rural Americans who once backed him. For families who rely on large vehicles, diesel trucks and long daily drives, petrol and diesel prices are more than an inconvenience. They shape household finances—and often determine how people feel about the direction of the country.
Raise fuel costs high enough and even an alleged vegan can start to look like a tempting choice at the ballot box.
Donald Trump has survived extraordinary political crises, including the prospect of imprisonment. Yet the current backlash may represent the greatest threat of his career.
Early voting is already under way, with election day scheduled for the following Tuesday. The possibility that Trump could lose control of both chambers of Congress is becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss.
Still, there is a warning from recent history. During the 2022 midterm elections, I told several surprised BBC interviewers that Joe Biden’s Democrats performing far better than expected might actually prove disastrous for the party.
A stronger-than-expected result, I argued, could persuade the ageing president to seek another term. That is exactly what happened. Had Democrats suffered a heavier defeat, they might have replaced Biden with a stronger nominee—and perhaps prevented Trump’s return to the White House in 2024.
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Several Republicans have acknowledged voting for a Democrat and backing James Talarico’s Senate campaign in Texas
The same paradox may be emerging again: an electoral victory could quickly set the stage for another defeat. Suppose Democrats capture both chambers of Congress. Not only could the moderate Talarico win in Texas, but Michigan could elect Abdul El-Sayed, a combative left-wing politician in the mould of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Unlike Mamdani, however, El-Sayed would become a national Democratic figure rather than a city-based one. That could make it harder for the party to shake off its reputation for being excessively focused on identity politics and progressive causes.
To be fair, El-Sayed is an effective politician with especially strong backing among younger voters. But he and those aligned with him may seek to confront Trump on his own terms, attempting to defeat him with the same intensity that he has used against his political enemies.
They could pursue another impeachment effort, triggering a fresh series of congressional investigations and hearings. That would consume enormous political energy as lawmakers searched for evidence of misconduct. In the
Senate, however, conviction and removal would require a two-thirds majority. That threshold would almost certainly remain out of reach.
That will not stop them raking over wrongdoing that many Americans might want to put behind them. It would become a sore when the country is looking for balm. And the Democrats would become a party of past grievances rather than forward-looking optimism.
And then El-Sayed and his friends would press for a radical presidential candidate in the 2028 campaign and all that new-found support the party has in places like Kansas and Iowa might fade rather fast.
Better perhaps to lose this time round or maybe take the lower House of Representatives but not the Senate. Better to face disappointment now, forcing the party to have a serious conversation about its appeal to all of America. Left leaning, even socialist in places. But centrist too, and with a candidate who can knit it all together. Just as Bill Clinton did in the 1990s and Barack Obama in this century.
Talking of presidential candidates: that process of selection (yes, it’s crazy) starts within hours of the results. Here it gets complicated and highly unpredictable. The Democrats might, as I suggest, live to regret winning big in 2026 if that is what happens.
But not just because such a victory persuades their own party to adopt positions that are electorally unviable. It might also persuade the Republicans to double down on Trumpism. Or to claim that it has never been properly tried!
In those circumstances it seems at least possible that this is the moment fringe people on the Right outside the party come out against him and try to seize the wheel.
This might not be pretty. How about a presidential run from Tucker Carlson, the Right-wing influencer who clashed recently with the former Conservative cabinet minister Jacob Rees- Mogg, who accused Carlson of getting dangerously close to defending Adolf Hitler.
There are others too who might be willing to shake up the Republicans and thrust aside their ageing president – who’ll be something of a lame duck if Congress blocks or delays his domestic agenda – and the obvious candidates to replace him in 2028, the Vice-President JD Vance and the Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Of course, all of this suggests that we have an actual result. But if it is close it is entirely possible the President tries to overturn it and we are in for weeks of dangerous and divisive squabbling.
All American elections matter because America matters. This one might just matter a little bit more than normal.
