California’s Central Valley often faces threats from wildfires, earthquakes, and floods, but the housing market is being heavily impacted by a different geological issue.
The issue that is having a huge effect on property prices in California’s Central Valley is the ever-sinking ground.
Scientists have been worried about the Central Valley’s sinking for over a century, and now it’s time for real estate agents to worry too.
A recent study has revealed that the sinking is now affecting the local housing market, according to SFGATE.
The land in this area is subsiding quickly, by as much as an inch annually, resulting in property values plummeting by up to 5.8 percent, as a study conducted by UC Riverside found.
In terms of dollars, homes in these subsiding areas have lost between $6,689 and $16,165 in value.
“Home values have been on the rise, as our data clearly shows, but without this particular issue, they might have increased slightly more,” Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, mentioned to SFGATE when discussing the region.
The total loss of all homes in subsiding areas came to a staggering $1.87 billion, the study estimated.
The challenge troubling property prices in California’s Central Valley is the continually sinking ground (photographed: California post-earthquake).
This significant drop in property values across the Central Valley is primarily due to the ground’s subsidence (shown in California’s San Joaquin Valley).
“Essentially, as the land sinks, so do the property values,” explained Mehdi Nemati, a UCR assistant professor specializing in environmental economics and policy, who spearheaded the study.
‘This is the first time anyone has quantified how much land subsidence costs homeowners in this region.’
California’s Central Valley incorporates Sacramento Valley in the north and San Joaquin Valley in the south. The area houses Sacramento, Fresno and Bakersfield, amongst other lesser-known cities.
Land subsidence, which is what these areas are facing, occurs when groundwater is pumped out faster than it is replenished – which causes underground clay and silt layers to compact.
The result of this is a gradual – but sometimes irreversible – sinking of land surface.
‘Think of a sponge,’ Nemati explained. ‘If you squeeze water out and never let it soak again, it flattens and hardens. That’s what’s happening underground.’
Authors of the study gathered subsidence data and compared it against almost 200,000 home sales across San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Fresno, Kings, Tulare and Kern counties.
They determined its effect on the home prices through applied statistical models.
As the public becomes more aware of California’s sinking ground, it is becoming as much of a concern for homeowners as flood or fire risk.
The ground is lowering at a rapid pace – as much as one inch every year, and this has caused property values in the region to tank up to 5.8 percent (pictured: homes in the Central Valley)
As the public becomes more aware of California’s sinking ground, it is becoming as much of a concern for homeowners as flood or fire risk (pictured: a Santa Barbara wildfire in July)
Subsidence has been an issue in the Central Valley since the 1920s, and the land has sunk as much as 30 feet in some places.
This problem is not unique to California. Other areas worldwide are dealing with subsidence – including the Gulf Coast and the East Coast, where land subsidence can reduce home values by an average of 6 percent in affected areas.
Venice, Italy is well-known for its sinking land and both Jakarta, Indonesia, and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, are seeing rapid subsidence – making both cities vulnerable to rising sea levels.
The Indonesian government are even relocating the capital due to the city’s fast sinking.
