Hurricane Fausto is increasingly being watched for a potentially unusual track toward Hawaii, with new forecasts suggesting the storm could come close enough to deliver a rare direct blow to parts of the island chain.
The latest spaghetti models for the Category 2 system show Fausto moving on a path that could bring impacts to Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi and Oʻahu by next week.
Fausto has continued to organize over the eastern Pacific, and forecasters said Friday that it is expected to pass just north of Hawaii’s Big Island on Tuesday as a tropical storm.
The islands that remain within the projected storm zone include many of Hawaii’s most populated and heavily visited areas, with more than one million residents statewide and major hubs such as Honolulu, Waikiki, Kahului and Kihei potentially affected.
Fausto, which became a hurricane on July 20, is currently packing sustained winds above 100 mph, while forecast tracks show the system maintaining a largely direct westward course toward Hawaii.
The National Hurricane Center cautioned in an update: “Fausto is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of some impacts from wind and rainfall is increasing.”
Still, weather experts stressed that the forecast remains uncertain, and it is too soon to determine Fausto’s exact strength or which islands may face the greatest threat when the storm nears Hawaii.
The timing comes as Hawaii moves through the height of its summer tourism season, when an estimated 250,000 visitors are typically on the islands each day from June through mid-August, filling beaches, resorts and popular attractions.
Hurricane Fausto (Pictured) is currently a Category 2 storm headed directly for Hawaii
Forecast models project that Hurricane Fausto will impact the Hawaiian Islands after passing just to the north of the Big Island on Tuesday, July 28
The last Pacific cyclone to directly strike Hawaii was Hurricane Olivia in September 2018, which also reached the islands after weakening to a tropical storm.
Forecasters with AccuWeather predicted that Fausto may continue to strengthen into the weekend before eventually losing power as it heads deeper into the cooler waters of the Central Pacific.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva also agreed with the National Hurricane Center and the two to three spaghetti model tracks which showed Fausto eventually being a near-miss for the Hawaiian Islands.
However, DaSilva warned that even a close pass to the north would likely bring rough surf and dangerous rip currents to packed beaches throughout Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi and Oʻahu, with beaches facing to the east and north seeing the greatest hazards.
A rip current is a strong, narrow channel of water that flows quickly away from the shore, often pulling swimmers out to sea.
They can be deadly even for strong swimmers as they sweep people into deeper water, exhausting them as they try to fight against the current instead of swimming parallel to the shore to escape.
DaSilva said in a statement: ‘There can also be an uptick in gusty winds and locally drenching showers, depending on the exact track of the storm.’
Fausto is already the sixth named storm to form in the Pacific this summer, with the National Weather Service already predicting another to develop next week.
Pictured: Beachgoers enjoy the summer weather on a beach in Maui (Stock Image)
Hurricane Fausto had sustained winds of more than 100mph as of Friday morning
Hurricane Fausto is projected to reach Hawaii at tropical storm strength by next week. A direct hit would be the first since 2018
Meteorologists have been warning that the 2026 Pacific hurricane season could be particularly active due to the emergence of a ‘super’ El Nino in June.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which the central and eastern Pacific surface temperature becomes significantly warmer than average, flipping weather patterns worldwide.
Due to the significantly warmer water in the pacific fueling tropical cyclone activity, forecasters with AccuWeather predicted there would be 17 to 22 named storms across the Pacific this year.
Between nine and 13 of those are projected to be hurricanes, and as many as eight are predicted to reach ‘major hurricane’ status at Category 3 or greater.
‘Hawaii has gone a long time without a direct hurricane landfall, but that should not lead to complacency,’ DaSilva explained in May.
‘Some islands were hit hard by flash flooding in March. People across Hawaii should prepare for an increased risk of tropical impacts this year.’
AccuWeather also warned that their Pacific forecast included one to two direct hits on the state.
El Niño is also feared to result in an uptick of major storms that could threaten California, potentially even reaching major cities like Los Angeles this summer.
‘That extra energy stored in the ocean can help storms strengthen faster, last longer and in some cases move farther north toward places like Baja California and far Southern California,’ DaSilva said.
