A prominent crime analyst has painted a detailed picture of the potential scenario involving the abduction of Savannah Guthrie’s mother, Nancy, highlighting the kidnappers’ possible next moves as they aim to “close the circle.”

Retired special agent Jim Cavanaugh, previously with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives, shared his insights with Craig Melvin, Guthrie’s co-host on NBC’s Today show. Cavanaugh noted, “The kidnappers took significant risks to execute this plan, and now they must make further contact to achieve their objective.”

“Having gone through the trouble of breaking in, assaulting Nancy, and concealing her whereabouts, the perpetrators now face the challenge of communicating to meet their end goal,” Cavanaugh explained.

His analysis came shortly after Guthrie, visibly emotional, appealed for her 84-year-old mother’s safe return in a heartfelt video message, where she was flanked by her elder siblings, Annie and Camron.

Nancy disappeared from her million-dollar residence in Tucson, Arizona, sometime between late Saturday night and early Sunday.

Amidst the dire circumstances, Cavanaugh expressed a glimmer of optimism regarding the possible developments that might follow.

‘The best thing they can do, their best option is to release Nancy, leave her at the foot of a church somewhere, a store, or take the step to communicate to see if you can reach your goal.’

Guthrie and her siblings acknowledged ransom notes sent to news outlets and the FBI requesting Bitcoin in exchange for Nancy’s release, but warned they needed concrete proof their mother is still alive. 

Former ATF special agent Jim Cavanaugh said Nancy Guthrie’s family’s desperate plea for her return could force her abductors to ‘close their circle’ if they are holding her for ransom

Savannah Guthrie issues a plea for her 84-year-old mother’s return on Wednesday night while flanked by her sister Annie and brother Camron 

Cavanaugh said they were right to be cautious, conceding that the demands may have been sent by ‘someone in Kathmandu’.

He thinks the abductors may now get in touch via a ‘snail mail package’ with something such as a piece of jewelry, lock of hair, video or photo to prove that Nancy is still alive.

Cavanaugh added: ‘Then the communication can happen where they can try to reach their goal. 

‘That’s what should happen, that’s what we want to happen, either communication or release her, if your crime has not worked.’

The crime expert also suggested the kidnapper might now realize they made a mistake in capturing the mother of one of America’s best-known TV stars, with the abduction fast-becoming the biggest story in the country. 

‘They got too big too fast,’ he said. They took Nancy, whether they knew this was Savannah’s mom, or just thought it was a wealthy woman.

‘This thing got real big, real fast and so their concern now is the communication.

‘So, they’re apprehensive about doing it. So they either have to do it (communicate) or release Nancy.’ 

Nancy has been missing since late Saturday or early Sunday. She requires medication every 24 hours to survive

FBI agents are pictured at Nancy’s home late Wednesday evening. They left again after a few hours 

It is unclear why agents descended on Nancy’s home, which has not been surrounded by any sort of cordon for much of the week

FBI agents swooped on Nancy’s home on Wednesday evening and temporarily cordoned it off with yellow crime scene tape.

They left again a few hours later. 

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos said he does not have a suspect for the kidnapping and was unable to offer any information about how Nancy was taken from her home.

Drops of blood were found on her doorstep.

The Catalina Hills suburb where she lives is very secluded, with properties set on large lots and no streetlights.

Investigators are combing doorbell camera footage, but have warned there is no guarantee it will yield any information.

Nancy’s own doorbell camera had been taken off its mount.

Sheriff Nanos said his department had urgently requested the recordings but had not yet received them.

Nancy requires medication every 24 hours to ensure she does not get sick or die. Her meds were found at her home on Sunday morning, raising further concerns for her wellbeing.

The senior citizen’s pacemaker stopped transmitting information to her Apple Watch, which was left inside her home, around 2am Sunday.

That may offer a possible clue as to when she was taken away from the property.  

An overhead shot of Nancy’s $1 million home, where she has lived since 1975 

Guthrie with her mother Nancy, who has not been seen since the night of January 31

Investigators said her home showed signs of a break-in. 

Cavanaugh said that if Nancy’s abductors see her family’s message, they will be forced to make a choice over how to communicate back. 

‘So the best thing they can do, their best option is to release Nancy, leave her at the foot of a church somewhere, a store, or take the step to communicate to see if you can reach your goal,’ he said. 

‘The kidnappers took a lot of risk to do this,’ he continued. 

‘Once they can make the connection, they are the abductors with Nancy, a piece of jewelry, some hair, a picture, a video, then the communication can happen where they can try to reach their goal. 

‘That’s what should happen, that’s what we want to happen, either communication or release her, if your crime has not worked.’

The former special agent also speculated that the plot to snatch Nancy may have blown out of control for the perpetrators.  

‘They got too big too fast when they took Nancy, whether they knew this was Savannah’s mom or just a wealthy woman, this thing got real big real fast,’ he said. 

‘And so their concern now is the communication. So they’re apprehensive about doing it, so they either have to do it or release Nancy.’

Nancy has lived in her home since 1975. Guthrie was born in Australia while her late father, Charles, was working there for a mining company.

The family returned to the US when she was five. Nancy has lived in the Tucson home ever since.

Charles died of a heart attack in 1988, aged just 49, when Guthrie was 16.