Rep. Mike Lawler, a Hudson Valley Republican, holds a narrow three-point advantage over Democratic challenger Cait Conley in the closely watched battleground race, according to new internal polling obtained exclusively by The Post.
The incumbent leads Conley 50% to 47% in New York’s 17th Congressional District, the Lawler campaign’s survey of 400 likely voters found. The poll was conducted from Sept. 28 through Sept. 30.
McLaughlin & Associates conducted the survey, which carries a 4.9% margin of error — underscoring how competitive the race remains and why it continues to be viewed as a toss-up.
The poll was released one day after a separate PIX11 and Emerson College survey showed Conley, a West Point graduate and former Biden administration national security official, narrowly leading Lawler by two points.
The Emerson-PIX11 survey was conducted between Sept. 27 and Sept. 29.
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In the Lawler campaign’s poll, the two-term congressman held a commanding 92% to 6% lead over Conley among Republican voters. He also led among independents, 52% to 40%.
Lawler also attracted support from 20% of Democrats, while Conley won 79% of voters in her party.
The 17th District includes Westchester, Rockland, Putnam and Dutchess counties. Former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the district in 2024, making it one of the Democrats’ top targets for a pickup in November’s midterm elections.
The Lawler campaign’s survey also tested the New York governor’s race, finding Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman ahead of Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, 51% to 47%, in the pivotal suburban district.
Blakeman posted a stronger showing than Lawler among independent voters, leading Hochul 55% to 37%.
