Our attention has been keenly directed towards Los Angeles, and understandably so; the events unfolding there are cause for concern. There’s a significant uprising in one of our largest cities, with groups of troublemakers and delinquents challenging the rule of law, raising alarms for everyone.

Meanwhile, beyond our borders, the usual maneuvers continue unabated. Take, for instance, the United States Navy and 15 NATO allies engaging in Baltic Operations 2025 (BALTOPS25). This exercise, involving about 40 ships, 25 aircraft, and around 9,000 personnel, unfolds near Russia—a remnant of Cold War tensions. The strategic nature of the Baltic Sea is underscored by the fact that nine countries have shores along it, but Russia, with its narrow access including the port of St. Petersburg, remains the only non-NATO country with a coastline there.

BALTOPS is more than a training exercise. It’s also a symbolic thumb of the nose at Tsar Vladimir I.

This month, NATO navies are demonstrating their naval prowess in the Baltic Sea, with thousands participating from 17 countries on 50 ships in military exercises spearheaded by the U.S. Navy’s 6th Fleet.

Of the nine countries that share a Baltic Sea coastline, only Russia is not a NATO member, and June’s BALTOPS exercise aims to ensure those other countries can work together to defend the area, at a time when Moscow is turning up the heat. 

“This year’s BALTOPS is more than just an exercise,” said U.S. Vice Admiral J.T. Anderson in a press release this week. “It’s a visible demonstration of our Alliance’s resolve, adaptability and maritime strength.”

So, the question is this: How will Russia respond?

This is a personal opinion and worth every penny you paid for it, but I don’t think Russia will do anything directly. The nations of the eastern Baltic – Finland, Estonia, and Latvia – all share land borders with Russia. But while Russia has its port at St. Petersburg, there is a significant bottleneck in getting from the port to the Gulf of Finland, and an even tighter spot between Sweden and Denmark to break out into the North Sea and the greater Atlantic. Were I Russia and looking to play some navy games, I’d want to find a less constricted spot. When it comes to the Baltic, it’s a NATO pond, and Tsar Vladimir I knows it.

Besides, Russia has other things on its mind right now.