After absorbing a substantial amount of analysis from the BBC and insights from Sir John Curtice, I find myself reaching a saturation point with the local election breakdowns. As a dedicated Conservative, my takeaway is clear: the battlefield remains wide open.
With three years until the next general election, the polls indicate that we have the most favored party leader. Kemi Badenoch has had a commendable campaign, presenting herself as a vibrant and dynamic contender, standing out among her peers.
Badenoch’s communication style is candid and unscripted. For a compelling showcase of her prowess, one should watch the video capturing her exchange with a heckler in Billericay. The individual challenged her on issues of anti-Semitism and her principled stance on Israel, and Badenoch’s response was both powerful and decisive, effectively silencing her critic.
Her fearless demeanor and clarity of purpose are invigorating to witness, especially when contrasted with the Prime Minister’s somewhat mechanical delivery. As it stands, she seems to have exceeded expectations at the polls.
The Conservatives can highlight their successes in areas like Westminster and Wandsworth as evidence of their continued appeal to the upwardly mobile professional middle class. Simultaneously, they managed to fend off formidable competition from the Reform Party in places like Harlow and Bexley. While not to be overstated, this captures the essence of the coalition that propelled the Tories to victory in 2019—a coalition that remains within reach of revival.
The moment is ripe for seizing, as Labour, under Starmer’s leadership, has stumbled, delivering its worst electoral performance with a mere 16 percent. Starmer’s unpopularity was frequently mentioned by voters as a reason for their reluctance to support Labour. In the coming weeks, speculation will likely swirl around whether Labour MPs will decide it’s time for a change in leadership.
Kemi Badenoch has a fearlessness and knowledge of her own mind that are enjoyable to watch, says Boris Johnson – especially in comparison with our stammering Prime Minister
They clearly have a very difficult dilemma. If they move against him in sufficient numbers – or if his Cabinet rebels – then they may just be able to prise his frozen fingers from the wheel. But what is the plan? The Labour MPs do not have a replacement around which the party can unite. It is very far from clear that Angela Rayner or Ed Miliband would be significantly more popular with the electorate. Wes Streeting is not beloved of the party’s sizeable left wing. Andy Burnham is not even in parliament.
Labour MPs know that if they turf out Starmer, and have a shambolic crapshoot of a leadership contest, then they risk the very same charge – ‘chaos’ – that is currently their best and most effective attack line against the serially regicidal Tories. It therefore seems increasingly likely that they will simply bottle it, and that Starmer will stagger on.
But frankly it is getting to the stage where it doesn’t matter whether or not they replace their leader. Starmer has now done so much damage that the Labour position may not be retrievable.
Yesterday morning he popped up to give a typically android Press statement, in which he said that he would not ‘walk away’ from the premiership – in other words, that he was not going to resign. He then tried to explain the rout.
He could hardly claim that all mid-term governments have difficult local election results, because that patently isn’t true. Look at the local results of May 2021, when the incumbent mid-term Tories pummelled Labour and won the Hartlepool by-election.
So Starmer had a different explanation. The reason the Labour party is so unpopular, he said, is that people don’t think they have yet done enough to transform the country. ‘The people have sent a message,’ he said, ‘about the pace of change.’
According to Starmer, people want Labour to go faster in changing the country; but frankly I feel he is being too modest about his achievements. He has only been in power for two years, and he is well on the way to changing this country beyond recognition. He is turning it into a complete basket case.
He is changing the face of rural Britain, with his persecution of the farmers, and with two pubs now closing every day.
He has gravely damaged the educational system, abandoning crucial Tory reforms and becoming the first government in Europe to tax schools, so that about 100 schools have closed, and the taxpayer is now forced to educate thousands of former fee-paying kids.
He has cratered Britain’s global standing, so that Americans no longer believe we are a reliable ally, the Mauritians think we are fools, and the EU believe that we will soon pay them billions for the privilege of undemocratically bowing to their vexatious and job-destroying regulations.
Above all he is fast changing the whole moral climate of the country, so that we are turning into a bloated, welfarist, work-from-home culture where shoplifting has become epidemic, where rapists and other serious offenders are wandering the streets, and where taxes are now so high – the highest ever – that huge numbers of talented people are actually fleeing Britain in a brain drain.
My dear Keir: the pace of change has been extraordinary, and it is all for the worse. Sooner or later there will have to be a general election, and at that moment people will think hard about the new government.
According to Sir John Curtice – looking about as venerable as David Attenborough himself – the era of two-party politics is over. Well, maybe; but the British people are creatures of habit and, as Disraeli said, they are no lovers of coalitions.
The two insurgent parties – Reform and the Greens – seem to me to suffer from a narrowness of their agenda: they believe, one way or another, that the best way to get elected in this country is to find a minority group and blame them for the ills of the people.
Kemi celebrates the Tories retaking Westminster council. Labour MPs know that if they turf out Starmer, they risk the same ‘chaos’ that is currently their best attack line against the Tories
Reform and the Greens both suffer from a narrowness of their agenda. The Reform lot think all problems could be simply solved if we were tougher on immigrants, writes Boris Johnson
The Reform lot think all problems could be solved if we were tougher on immigrants; and the Greens think we should be tougher on billionaires and Jewish people. Well, I find both manifestos dispiriting and thoroughly inadequate.
I certainly think we could be a lot tougher on illegal immigrants, and we should use Brexit powers to bring back the Rwanda scheme, for instance. But I don’t think either of the insurgents – Greens or Reform – has got a credible economic programme.
Reform is all over the place: too frightened to promise essential welfare cuts, and too incompetent, wherever they have actually run local government, to cut spending. On the contrary, Reform councils have been pathetically hiking council tax.
As for the Greens, they are an anti-capitalist nightmare.
This is where Tories always have an advantage, and where Kemi can score. By her excellent parliamentary performances she has built a fan club and the right to a hearing. She now needs to ensure by ruthless repetition that her Tories are seen as the standard-bearers of revolt against Labour’s economic disaster.
Reform did well yesterday – but not as well as expected. The Tories outperformed expectations. The gap is closing. It will not be easy, but Kemi can do it.
