Manchester’s mayor, Andy Burnham, might be poised to challenge Keir Starmer for the position of Prime Minister, with rumors suggesting that a current MP is willing to vacate their seat to facilitate his return to Parliament.

As the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham is a vocal critic of the government, even though he shares the same party as the sitting Prime Minister. He is a strong advocate for Lucy Powell in her bid to become the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party.

Powell is often viewed as the candidate positioned against Starmer, likely to be one of the two main contenders opposite Bridget Phillipson, a Cabinet member and the Education Secretary.

There is growing speculation surrounding Burnham as increased pressure mounts on Sir Keir, following the exits of former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and US ambassador Lord Mandelson.

Burnham has thrown his support behind the Mainstream Labour movement, a newly formed network of party members who are critical of Starmer and the government in a broader sense.

The campaign wants to see the introduction of wealth taxes, the nationalisation of utility companies and an end to the two-child benefit cap.

He is anticipated to openly criticize the Prime Minister at the upcoming Labour Party conference this month, coinciding with the hustings for the Deputy Labour Leader contest.

There’s just one problem for Burnham if he wishes to become a serious contender to be the next Prime Minister – assuming Starmer is toppled.

And that is that despite being the only Labour politician with a net positive approval rating, he is not a sitting MP.

But this might not stand in his way for long.

Labour sources have said that one of Manchester’s own MPs, who is in ill health, is ready to step down – which would trigger a by-election which Burnham could conceivably stand in.

No 10 will be wise to the threat of Burnham and will likely do their best to block any such event, but should a by-election occur, there will be those pushing to nominate a popular candidate in order to effectively fight the threat of Reform.

Most tellingly, Burnham was asked to rule out running in a future leadership contest this week, and failed to do so. 

One Burnham ally told the Guardian: ‘Andy is ready to come back but it needs to be asap. He needs to be in place before the May elections in order to be ready. He also needs to be upfront about why he wants to come back and challenge the leadership to defy the party’s wishes.’ 

But Burnham, who has already run to be Leader of the Labour Party twice, has previously said he intends to see out his term as Manchester mayor until 2028. 

The speculation comes after a torrid couple of weeks for Starmer, who lost his Housing Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister in Angela Rayner after it emerged she did not pay enough stamp duty on the purchase of her home.

It triggered a significant reshuffle for Starmer in the opening days of what was supposed to be a reset, or ‘phase two’ of government following the return from the summer recess.

Then, the Epstein birthday book was published by the Democrats in the US, revealing Starmer’s pick for US ambassador Lord Peter Mandelson’s contribution.

Mandelson wrote a ten-page note to Jeffrey Epstein, complete with photographs, in which he described him as his ‘best pal’.

Starmer initially stood by Mandelson, before emails emerged showing he had supported the paedophile even after he was convicted, told him to fight the conviction and to campaign for an early release.

The Prime Minister then fired Mandelson via his new Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper – but that was far from the end of the nightmare.

Questions still persist about exactly what Starmer knew, and when – and crucially whether he was aware of the supporting emails between Epstein and Mandelson.

Although some Labour MPs are quietly beginning to question whether Starmer will make it to the next election, many are aware of the risks of replacing a leader so soon.

‘There’s a calculation that needs to be made,’ one cabinet minister told the Guardian. ‘We might get a boost if we put in place a different leader and they quickly get a grip. 

‘But there’s a danger that we’re basically saying to the country that we’re the same as the Tories.’