Turnout in this year’s Democratic congressional primaries has lagged well behind last year’s levels, with election watchers expecting notably fewer young voters to participate.
The Democratic Socialists of America and other progressive strategists had been looking to build on the momentum of 2025, when Mayor Zohran Mamdani stunned the political establishment by defeating former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and other rivals in the mayoral race, powered in large part by younger voters.
“In my part of the world, turnout is a little low,” Manhattan Democratic leader Keith Wright said, referring to the 70th Assembly District in central Harlem. His son, Assemblyman Jordan Wright, is being challenged by DSA-backed candidate Conrad Blackburn.
“I have not seen the Mamdani surge from last November or the Democratic mayoral primary,” Wright added.
Mamdani was back on the campaign trail Monday night, making stops on the streets and in nightclubs across Harlem with democratic socialist insurgent Darializa Avila Chevalier. She is running against longtime Rep. Adriano Espaillat in the 13th Congressional District, which includes Harlem, Washington Heights, Inwood and sections of the Bronx.
As of 3 p.m., more than 367,000 voters had cast ballots in the primaries, either through early voting, absentee or mail-in ballots, or in-person voting earlier Tuesday.
That figure represents just over 10% of New York City’s 3.5 million registered Democrats.
By contrast, more than 1 million Democrats voted in last year’s ranked-choice mayoral primary. Mamdani defeated Cuomo 573,169 votes to 443,299, in an election that drew roughly 30% turnout.
But the turnout thus far is more than the 146,314 Democrats who voted in the Democratic primary for governor in 2022, when Kathy Hochul prevailed in the race for governor over challengers and current Rep. Tom Suozzi and city Public Advocate Jumaane Williams.
There is a statewide Democratic primary for comptroller that gives reason for all Democrats to vote in the primaries this year.
Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, in office since 2007, faces off against Democratic challengers Drew Warshaw and Raj Goyle.
- The highest turnout this primary season is centered in Manhattan and Brooklyn, where four of the most contested House races are held
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Mamdani also endorsed Lander over Goldman and supports DSA Assemblywoman Claire Valdez over Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso to succeed Velazquez.
Mamdani has stayed neutral in the race to succeed Nadler, even refusing to say whom he voted for since he now resides in the district. The leading candidates are Assembly members Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of John F. Kennedy, attorney George Conway and scientist Nina Schwalbe.
Voting experts said turnout will always be higher in a competitive marquee mayoral primary and presidential race than during mid-term congressional primaries.
“The turnout is going to be lower. Competitive mayoral elections almost always have higher turnout than congressional elections,” said Jerry Skurnik, a political consultant with Engage Voters US.
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But there was a dip in younger voters under 30, who came out in droves to vote for Mamdani for mayor last year but did not so in the most heavily contested House races.
“About as expected. High [turnout] for a federal off-year, low as a general matter, mainly because we have just the three hotly contested and expensive Congressional primaries really motivating people,” said John Mollenkopf, director of urban research at the CUNY Graduate Center.
“I haven’t seen the age distribution yet, but I am pretty sure that the lower age brackets have returned to the norm, which is that they have relatively low turnout.”
Mollenkopf said he’s seen “no evidence of the high level of field operations this time around” that the Democratic Socialists of American mounted for the 2025 Democratic mayoral primary for their candidate Mamdani.
“Yes, they are knocking on doors, but not with the same intensity, even in the areas that are key for them,” he said.
