Marine Le Pen Still Favored to Win France’s Next Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen remains the clear frontrunner to become France’s next president despite her latest legal setback, according to a new opinion poll.

Le Pen, 57, saw her conviction for embezzling millions of euros from the European Parliament upheld by appeal judges in Paris last week, a ruling that had prompted speculation she might drop a fourth attempt to win the Elysee Palace.

Instead, the far-right National Rally leader has insisted she will press ahead with her campaign to succeed Emmanuel Macron, as fresh polling over the weekend showed her well ahead in the first round of voting.

The Elabe survey, conducted for BFM TV and La Tribune Dimanche, put Le Pen on 34 per cent, a level of support that would comfortably carry her into the second-round run-off in next year’s presidential election.

Her closest potential challengers were polling between 14 and 16 per cent. The same survey suggested Le Pen would win a direct contest against far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon with more than 67 per cent of the vote.

Edouard Philippe, the centrist former prime minister who served under Macron from 2017 to 2020, would secure 48 per cent in a run-off against Le Pen, leaving him short of victory, the poll indicated.

Following Tuesday’s court decision, Le Pen confirmed she intended to remain in the presidential race and said she would challenge the ruling before France’s highest court.

‘The campaign begins tonight,’ she told French television, adding that she would ‘pursue all legal avenues’ to contest her embezzlement conviction.

Le Pen was found guilty again last week of misusing €2.8million (£2.4million) in EU funds as part of a fake jobs scheme.

She was initially found guilty in March last year after a court found she used European Parliament funds to pay her own party employees instead of parliamentary assistants between 2004 and 2016.

During the case the prosecution argued the officials hired rarely set foot in the European Parliament and did not play an active role there.

Among the employees were Le Pen’s personal assistant Catherine Griset, who attended the parliament building for just 12 hours between August 2014 and October 2015.

Le Pen denied organising the scheme but previously called it ‘a mistake’.

After being found guilty last year she was handed a four-year jail term, of which two years were suspended and two were to be served at home with an electronic tag.

She was also hit with a five-year ban from standing for election.

Though the appeal court found her guilty of misusing the funds again on Tuesday, it ruled she could stand for the presidency while wearing a tag.

That order is now suspended until the new appeal reaches a verdict, likely to be early next year – the presidential election is set for April with a potential run-off in May.

Before last week’s verdict Le Pen had said repeatedly she would not run for president if she had to wear a tag because she would not feel ‘totally free’ to campaign.

There had been speculation she would hand the National Rally candidacy to the party’s 30-year-old president, Jordan Bardella.

However she said her campaign to ‘begin the rebirth of France’ would begin immediately and that she would not change her mind.

Mr Bardella said his support for Le Pen was ‘absolute’, adding: ‘My loyalty will never waver based on circumstances.’

Sunday’s favourable poll reinforced the possibility of a convicted criminal entering the Elysee Palace for the first time.

Marine Tondelier, leader of the French Greens, said in a ‘normal world’ where the National Rally had ‘even the slightest shred of morality’, Le Pen would quit the race for the presidency.

Ms Tondelier added: ‘One cannot decently stand for election after having been convicted in this way for misappropriating public funds, even ​if one remains eligible.’